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2020年全球供应链中断和未来策略调查报告

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2020年全球供应链中断和未来策略调查报告

 

 2

 2020

 G l o b a l

 S u pp l y

 C h a i n D i sr u p t i o n a n d

 F u t u re

 S t r at e g i e s

 S u r vey

 R e p o r t

  T ABLE

 OF

 CONTENTS

 04

 |

 Executive

 Summary

  06

 |

 Alternative

 Supply

 Chain

 Models:

 A

 Move

 T oward Stability

 and

 Resilience

  08

 |

 Strengthening

 Supplier

 Relationships:

 T ransparenc y , Visibilit y ,

 and

 Distress

  12

 |

 Diversifying

 Supply

 Chains:

 Rethinking

 China, Reshoring,

 and

 Nearshoring

  16

 |

 Supply

 Chain

 Innovations

 and

 Efficiencies

  19

 |

 Conclusion

  20

 |

 Appendix:

 Data,

 Methodolog y ,

 and

 Demographics

 F o l ey

 &

 L a rd n e r

 LL P

  AUTHORS

 For

 more

 information,

 please

 contact

 any

 of

 the partners

 below .

  A nn

 M a r i e

 U e t z

 H e a d

 o f

 F o l e y ’ s

 C o r o n a v i r u s

 T a s k

 F o r c e 313.234.7114

 au e t z @ fo l e y . c o m

  J a mes

 Ka l y v a s

 F o l e y ’ s

 C h i e f

 I nn o v a t i o n

 P a r t n e r

 a n d C h a i r

 o f

 t h e

 T e c hn o l o g y

 T r a n s a c t i o n s &

 O u t s o u rc i ng

 P r a ct i ce

 213.972.4542

 j k a l y v a s @ fo l e y . c o m

  V a n e ss a

 M ill e r

 C o - C h a i r

 o f

 F o l e y ’ s

 C o r o n a v i r u s

 T a s k

 F o rce a n d

 C o - C h a i r

 o f

 t h e

 S u pp l y

 C h a i n

 T e a m

 313.234.7130

 v m ill e r @ fo l e y . c o m

 K a t e

 W e g r z yn

 C o - C h a i r

 o f

 F o l e y ’ s

 C o r o n a v i r u s

 T a s k

 F o rce a n d

 C o - C h a i r

 o f

 t h e

 S u pp l y

 C h a i n

 T e a m

 414.297.5778 k w e g r z y n @ fo l e y . c o m

  3

 Executive

 Summary

 What

 will

 the

 supply

 chain

 of

 the

 future

 look

 like?

 That

 question,

 as

 we

 brace

 for

 the

 continuing

 effects of

 COVID-19,

 is

 at

 the

 top

 of

 executives’

 minds.

 And

 yet,

 each

 vision

 seems

 to

 beget

 more

 questions about

 alternative

 supply

 chain

 models

 and

 contract terms,

 about

 identifying

 supplier

 distress

 and implementing

 new

 technologies,

 about

 where suppliers will

 be

 located

 and,

 of

 course,

 about

 striking the

 right balance

 between

 cost-efficiency

 and

 resiliency .

 Our

 survey

 of

 nearly

 150

 manufacturing

 executives— more

 than

 60%

 of

 whom

 are

 members

 of

 their company’ s

 C-suite

 and

 work

 in

 a

 wide

 array

 of

 industries—offers

 a

 perspective

 on

 what

 business leaders

 are

 thinking

 when

 it

 comes

 to

 these

 vital questions,

 as

 well

 as

 how

 the

 future

 supply

 chain

 is

 beginning

 to

 take

 shape.

 What

 is

 clear

 is

 that

 some

 change

 is

 certain,

 in

 light of

 not

 only

 the

 pandemic,

 but

 also

 the

 geopolitical landscape

 and

 economic

 headwinds

 that

 preceded it.

 Our

 respondents

 know

 this—only

 7%

 are

 not undertaking

 contingency

 planning

 efforts

 to

 prepare for

 future

 disruptions

 (Q1 ).

 What

 will

 these

 preparations

 entail?

 For

 starters,

 43%

 of

 respondents

 have

 already withdrawn

 some

 of

 their

 production

 or

 sourcing

 from China

 or

 are

 planning

 to

 do

 so

 ( Q 11 ).

 Many

 of

 these manufacturers

 are

 looking

 to

 reshore

 closer

 to

 home, whether

 in

 the

 U.S.,

 Canada,

 or

 Mexico

 ( Q12 ).

 Seventy

 percent

 agree

 that

 companies

 will,

 as

 a

 result of

 the

 pandemic,

 lessen

 their

 focus

 on

 sourcing

 from the

 lowest-cost

 supplier

 in

 favor

 of

 higher

 supply

 chain resiliency

 (Q7 ).

 A

 similar percentage

 (62%)

 agrees that

 the

 focus

 on

 just-in-time

 (JIT)

 manufacturing models

 will

 also

 decrease

 (Q8 ).

 Relatedly ,

 over

 the

 next

 year ,

 many

 manufacturers expect

 to:

 strengthen

 relationships

 and

 increase

 transparency

 across

 their

 supply

 chains

 (42%), multi-source

 products

 to

 reduce

 reliance

 on

 any

 one

 supplier

 (39%),

 and

 diversify

 their

 supply

 chains among

 multiple

 geographies

 (30%)

 (Q3 ).

 They

 will also

 review

 contract

 terms

 (25%)—especially

 with regard

 to

 sole

 source

 and

 force

 majeure

 provisions— and

 consider

 new

 technologies,

 such

 as

 tools

 to improve

 supply

 chain

 visibility

 and

 tracking

 (47%), and

 operational

 analytics

 (39%)

 ( Q13 ).

 It

 will

 not

 be

 easy ,

 since

 business

 leaders

 continue to

 face

 growing

 concerns

 over

 consumer

 demand (58%),

 employee

 safety

 (43%),

 and

 additional challenges

 wrought

 by

 COVID-19

 and

 evolving geopolitical

 risks

 (Q2 ).

 However ,

 the

 case

 for

 supply chain

 transformation

 has

 been

 simmering

 for

 some time

 and

 the

 virus may

 finally

 force

 change.

 “There

 are

 lessons

 to

 be

 learned

 from

 this

 pandemic,” said

 V anessa

 Miller ,

 Co-Chair

 of

 Foley’ s

 Coronavirus T ask

 Force

 and

 Co-Chair

 of

 the

 Supply

 Chain

 T eam. “Among

 them

 is

 that

 cost

 may

 not

 be

 the

 only consideration,

 that

 companies

 can

 stabilize

 their supply

 chains

 by

 bringing

 on

 alternative

 suppliers

 or moving

 certain

 functions

 in-house,

 and

 that

 technology can

 help

 stem

 future

 disruption.

 But

 the

 principal lesson—wake-up

 call,

 really—might

 simply

 be

 that such

 disruptions

 are

 an

 unshakeable

 reality ,

 and

 that executives

 must

 have

 a

 proactive

 strategy

 if

 they

 hope to

 head

 them

 off.”

 In

 what

 follows,

 we

 aim

 to

 inform

 those

 strategies

 by offering

 insights

 from

 our

 survey

 and

 practice

 leaders in

 four

 key

 areas:

 I.

 Alternativ e

 Suppl y

 Chai n

 Model s

  II.

 Strengthenin g

 Supplie r

 Relationships

 III.

 Diversifyin g

 Suppl y

 Chains

 IV.

 Suppl y

 Chai n

 Innovation s

 and

 Efficiencies

  Some

 aggregate

 percentages

 referenced

 in

 this

 report

 do

 not

 equal

 100%

 either

 due

 to

 rounding

 or

 because

 respondents

 were

 invited

 to

 select

 more

 than

 one

 answer .

 The

 pages

 that

 follow

 include

 links

 to

 the

 relevant

 charts

 for

 the

 data

 referenced, and

 an

 appendix

 with

 detail

 on

 the

 survey

 methodology

 and

 a

 breakdown

 of

 respondent

 demographics.

 The

 full

 results appear on

 pages

 20-31 .

 4

 2020

 G l o b a l

 S u pp l y

 C h a i n D i sr u p t i o n a n d

 F u t u re

 S t r at e g i e s

 S u r vey

 R e p o r t

 93 %

 Are

 implementing or

 strengthening contingency

 plans

 70 %

 Expect

 COVID-19

 will lead

 to

 less

 focus

 on sourcing

 from

 the lowest-cost

 supplier

 4 3%

 Have

 already

 withdrawn

 from

 China or

 are

 planning

 to

 do

 so

 62 %

 Expect

 less

 focus on

 just-in-time

 (JIT)

 manufacturing

 models

 F o l ey

 &

 L a rd n e r

 LL P

  5

 V a n e ss a

 M ill er

 |

 C o - C h a i r

 o f

 F o l e y ’ s

 C oro n a v i r u s

 T a s k

 F o rc e

 a n d

 C o - C h a i r

 o f

 t h e

 S u pp l y

 C h a i n

 T e a m

 “ T h ere

 a re

 l es s o n s

 t o

 b e

 l e a r n e d

 f r o m

 t h i s

 p a n d e m i c .

 A m o n g

 t h e m

 i s

 t h a t

 c o s t

 m a y n o t

 b e

 t h e

 o n l y

 c o n s i d er a t i o n ,

 t h a t

 c o m p a n i es

 c a n

 s t a b i l i z e

 t h e i r

 s u pp l y

 c h a i n s

 b y b r i n g i n g

 o n

 a l t er n a t i v e

 s u pp l i e rs

 o r

 m o v i n g

 c er t a i n

 f un c t i o n s

 i n - h o u s e ,

 a n d

 t h a t t e c hn o l o g y

 c a n

 h e l p

 s t e m

 f u t u re

 d i s r u p t i o n .

 B u t

 t h e

 p r i n c i p a l

 l es s o n — w a k e - u p

 c a ll , re a ll y — m i g h t

 s i m p l y

 b e

 t h a t

 s u c h

 d i s r u p t i o n s

 a re

 a n

 un s h a k e a b l e

 re a l i t y ,

 a n d

 t h a t e x e c u t i v es

 m u s t

 h a v e

 a

 p r o a c t i v e

 s t r a t e g y

 i f

 t h e y

 h o p e

 t o

 h e a d

 t h e m

 o ff . ”

  6

 2020

 G l o b a l

 S u pp l y

 C h a i n D i sr u p t i o n a n d

 F u t u re

 S t r at e g i e s

 S u r vey

 R e p o r t

  A L TERNA TIVE

 SUPP L Y

 CHAIN

 MODELS

  A

 Move

 T oward Stability

 and

 Resilience

  T wo

 survey

 findings

 point

 to

 a

 potentially

 drastic shift

 in

 the

 way

 manufacturing

 company

 executives generally

 think

 about

 their

 global

 supply

 chains: from

 a

 concentration

 on

 minimizing

 lead

 times

 and

 cost

 to

 one

 that

 prioritizes

 stability

 and

 resilience in

 the

 face

 of

 disruption.

 When

 asked

 if,

 as

 a

 result

 of

 COVID-19,

 companies will

 focus

 less

 on

 sourcing

 from

 the

 lowest-cost supplier

 and

 instead

 place

 greater

 emphasis

 on

 a

 supplier’ s

 ability

 to

 provide

 more

 resilient

 and flexible

 processes,

 70%

 of

 respondents

 agreed—and 20%

 of

 those

 respondents

 strongly

 agreed—while only

 7%

 did

 not

 (Q7 ).

 Another

 key

 survey

 result

 supports

 this

 shift

 toward stability

 and

 resilience:

 62%

 of

 respondents

 agree (and

 17%

 of

 those

 respondents

 strongly

 agree)

 that

 the

 pandemic

 will

 lessen

 companies’

 focus

 on

 JIT

 manufacturing

 models

 that

 emphasize

 low

 costs and

 lean

 inventory

 (Q8 ).

 70 %

 Agree

  Less

 focus

 on lowest-cost

 supplier and

 greater

 emphasis

 on

 resilient

 and flexible

 processes

 2 4%

 Neutral

  7%

 Disagree

  62 %

 Agree

  Less

 focus

 on JIT

 manufacturing

 models

 that emphasize

 low

 costs and

 lean

 inventory

 27 %

 Neutral

  11 %

 Disagree

 “This

 is

 a

 significant

 shift

 in

 perspective,

 but

 not necessarily

 a

 new

 one,”

 said

 Miller .

 “After

 the

 Great Recession,

 we

 saw

 calls

 for

 sweeping

 change,

 albeit

 on different

 issues,

 only

 to

 find

 that

 some

 of

 it

 was

 easier said

 than

 done.

 But

 2020

 is

 not

 2009,

 and

 we

 may very

 well

 see

 companies

 follow

 through,

 especially

 if they

 see

 continuity

 of

 supply

 begin

 to

 overtake

 price

 as a

 key

 driver

 for

 success.”

 Many

 manufacturers,

 across

 numerous

 industries,

 still

 rely

 on

 a

 single

 source

 for

 the

 supply

 of

 various materials

 and

 components.

 By multi-sourcing

 these products—as

 39%

 of

 respondents

 are

 planning

 on

 or already

 doing

 (Q3 )—and

 working

 with

 customers

 to develop

 a

 preapproved

 list

 of

 alternative

 suppliers, companies

 can

 better

 mitigate

 potential

 interruptions.

 The

 first

 step

 in

 this

 process?

 Mapping

 the

 entire supply

 chain,

 including

 suppliers

 and

 sub-suppliers— as

 well

 as

 tracing

 inputs

 from

 raw

 materials

 to

 finished goods—then

 assessing

 critical

 risks

 at

 each

 step,

 from natural

 disasters

 to

 tariffs, power

 outages

 to

 l...

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