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1
C ONTENTS
Ex e cutive
summary
2
Introduction
3
SiThikukka
Saari
aThd
StaThislav
Secrieru
Global
trends
in
the
Russian
conte xt
5
The
int erplay
that
will
shape
the
de cade
ahead
SiThikukka
Saari
aThd
StaThislav
Secrieru
Russia ’ s
military
po w er
56
Fast
and
furious
–
or
failing?
AThdrás
Rácz
The
Russian
state
and
societ y
at
a
crossroads
26
The
twilight
z one
TatiaTha
StaThovaya
Russia
and
its
post -So viet
‘frenemies’
69
Breaking
fre e
from
the
post -So viet
time
loop?
AThdrew
WilsoTh
Russia ’ s
ec onomy
43
From
dusk
till dawn?
JaThis Kluge
The
future
o f
Chinese-Russian
relations
85
The
ne xt
round
o f
Go
MarciTh
Kaczmarski
C onclusions
97
SiThikukka
Saari
aThd
StaThislav
Secrieru
Abbre viations
101
Not es
on
the
c ontribut ors
102
CHAP TER
3
CHAP TER
2
CHAP TER
1
CHAP TER
4
CHAP TER
5
CHAP TER
6
2
Russian
Futures
2030
|
The
shape
o f
things
t o
c ome
EXECUTIVE
SUMMA R Y
This
Chaillot
Paper
looks
at
Russia
o Th
the
horizo Th of
2030.
It
offers
analytical
insights
into
the
twists a Th d
tur Th s
that
may
characterise
the
cou Th try’s
path in
the
upcoming
decade,
and
explores
how
a
num - ber
of
critical
uncertainties
may
have
a
signifi - ca Th t
impact
o Th
Russia’s
future
trajectory.
These key
u Th certai Th ties
work
as
‘catalysts’
that
may speed
up
the
pace
a Th d
alter
the
directio Th
of
cha Th ge i Th
Russia.
The
global
megatre Th ds
which
are
the
focus
of
the ope Th i Th g
chapter
i Th
this
volume
set
the
broader co Th text
of
Russia Th
futures.
The
Russia Th
leaders
of tomorrow
–
whoever
they
may
be
–
are
likely
to attempt
to
take
maximum
adva Th tage
of
the
crisis of
Wester Th
liberalism
a Th d
the
shifti Th g
global
or - der,
a Th d
try
to
shape
the
digital
revolutio Th
i Th
Rus - sia
in
such
a
way as
to
reinforce
the
authoritarian political
system.
O Th
the
other
ha Th d,
the
domestic status
quo
will
be
challe Th ged
i Th directly
by
societal a Th d
media
fragme Th tatio Th
as
well
as
by
the
o Th go - i Th g
global
e Th ergy
tra Th sitio Th
which
is
set
to
put
i Th questio Th
the
viability
of
Russia’s
extractive
eco - Th omic
model.
The
following
chapters
focus
on
five
distinct
di - me Th sio Th s
of
Russia’s
future
domestic
a Th d
foreig Th policy:
Russia Th
state-society
relatio Th s;
eco Th omic developme Th t;
Russia’s
military
power;
Russia’s relatio Th s
with
the
post-Soviet
Th eighbours;
a Th d
its relatio Th ship
with
Chi Th a.
The
ce Th tral
premise
of
Tatia Th a
Sta Th ovaya’s
chap - ter
on
the
Russian
state
and
society
at
a
crossroads is
that
the
Russia
of
today
may
seem
stag Th a Th t
o Th the
surface
but
u Th der Th eath
the
grou Th d
is
shift - i Th g.
Late Th t
but
widespread
disco Th te Th t
might
erupt in
intra-elite
infighting
and
fragmentation.
The chapter
poi Th ts
towards
fu Th dame Th tal
co Th tradic - tio Th s
i Th
the
Puti Th -drive Th
system;
o Th
the
o Th e
ha Th d Puti Th
plays
a Th
esse Th tial
role
i Th
the
curre Th t
political order,
of
which
he
is
the
architect
and
personifi - catio Th ,
but
o Th
the
other
ha Th d
he
is
i Th creasi Th gly withdraw Th
from
the
day-to-day
gover Th a Th ce
of
the cou Th try,
a Th d
this
may
lead
to
strife
i Th
the
future.
I Th
the
Th ext
chapter,
Ja Th is
Kluge
argues
that
the Russia Th
eco Th omy
has
bee Th
surprisi Th gly
resilie Th t but
shows
this
may
Th ot
be
the
case
duri Th g
the
Th ext ten
years.
A
decade
is
not
enough
to
completely cha Th ge
the
basis
of
a Th
eco Th omy
but
i Th
that
time a
course
towards
a
more
market-driven
or
more state-domi Th ated
a Th d
securitised
eco Th omic
system will
certai Th ly
be
set.
Furthermore,
the
quality
of future
decisio Th -makers
a Th d
gover Th a Th ce
will
play a
crucial
role
in
determining
Russia’s
economic competitive Th ess
–
a Th d
performa Th ce.
The
Russia Th
military
is
likely
to
co Th ti Th ue
to
play a Th
importa Th t
role
duri Th g
the
Th ext
decade.
A Th - drás
Rácz
shows
that
while
military
e Th gageme Th t abroad
will
still
be
used
by
the
Kremli Th
as
part
of its
strategy
to
assert
its
claim
to
great
power
sta - tus,
the
Th ature
a Th d
i Th te Th sity
of
Russia’s
military engagements
may
change
in
a
variety
of
ways; these
changes
are
likely
to
reflect
the
degree
of actual
a Th d
perceived
success
as
well
as
shifti Th g budgetary
resources.
In
the
fifth
and
sixth
chapters,
Andrew
Wilson a Th d
Marci Th
Kaczmarski
exami Th e
Russia’s
re - latio Th s
with
the
Easter Th
Part Th ership
states
a Th d Chi Th a
respectively.
Russia Th
foreig Th
policy
will
be depe Th de Th t
o Th
the
wider
co Th text
of
global
com - petitio Th
a Th d
tra Th sformi Th g
allia Th ces
as
well
as
o Th decisio Th s
a Th d
developme Th ts
i Th
these
cou Th tries themselves.
I Th
particular,
i Th
Easter Th
Europe
there are
ma Th y
co Th tradictory
a Th d
competi Th g
drivers
at play,
which
suggests
some
turbule Th t
times
ahead. Russia’s
strategic
part Th ership
with
Chi Th a
be Th e - fits
the
country
in
many
ways
but
in
the
future
its eco Th omic
a Th d
political
depe Th de Th cy
o Th
Chi Th a
could turn
into
a
critical
vulnerability.
The
i Th sights
i Th to
Russia Th
futures
co Th tai Th ed
i Th
this volume
will
hopefully
guide
Russia
watchers
–
a Th d the
policymakers
of
today
a Th d
tomorrow
–
as
they start
prepari Th g
for
the
risks
as
well
as
the
ope Th i Th gs that
lie
ahead.
Introduction
3
INTR ODU CTION
by
SINIKUKK A
SA ARI
AND
ST ANISL A V
SECRIERU*
‘The
only
certain
thing
about
the
futu re
is
that
it will
su rprise
even
those
who
have
seen
fu rthest
into
it.’ 1
The
historiaTh
Eric
Hobsbawm
eThded
his
semi - Thal
work
The
Age
of
Empire
with
a
sentence
that maThy might
assume
to
be
discouragiThg
for
re - searchers
eThgaged
iTh
foresight.
However,
this maxim
has
served
as
aTh
iThspiratioTh
for
this Chaillot
Paper:
it
is
takeTh
as
aTh
eThcouragemeTht to
avoid
the
trap
of
the
coThveThtioThal
extrapo - latioTh
of
curreTht
developmeThts
aThd
treThds,
aThd iThstead
to
combiThe
structural
aThalysis
with
the power
of
imagination
to
produce
a
series
of plausible
future
sceTharios
for
Russia
iTh
2030. The
coThtributors
to
this
collective
volume
have aimed
to
see
as
far
as
possible
iThto
the
future by
aThalysiThg the
available
data
oTh
chaThges
tak - iThg
place
iTh
Russia,
but
they
have
also
iThvoked ‘wild
card’
elemeThts
of
surprise
aThd
weaved them
iThto
the
aThalysis.
The
elemeTht
of
surprise is
particularly
important
in
a
country
like
Rus - sia
whose
leadership
has
dedicated
much
effort aThd
resources
to
elimiThatiThg
factors
of
coTh - tiThgeThcy
aThd
uThpredictability
iThterThally,
yet that
attempts
to
leverage
effects
of
surprise
in the
foreigTh
aThd
security
policy
areTha.
Further - more,
as
the
history
of
Russia
would
suggest, attempts
to
stoThewall
chaThge
may
eveThtually lead
to
eveTh
more
dramatic
–
aThd
ofteTh
violeTht
–
surprises.
In
fact,
not
only
did
Hobsbawm’s
reflection
guide
this
research
–
it
also
summarises
rather
Thicely
the
esseThce
of
foresight.
Strategic
fore - sight
is
Thot
about
forecastiThg
or
makiThg
exact predictioThs
about
future
eveThts
but,
rather,
it is
about
buildiThg
our
capacity
to
deal
with
fu - ture
surprises.
While
there
is
Tho
way
of
kThowiThg exactly
what
kiThds
of
political
decisioThs
future leaders
will
make
–
Thor,
iThdeed,
who
those leaders
will
be
–
it
is
Thevertheless
possible
to ideThtify
aThd
aThalyse
the
critical
uThcertaiThties related
to
future
developmeThts,
aThd
piThpoiTht the
variatioTh
betweeTh
poteThtial
futures
that those
drivers
of
chaThge
eThable.
The
poiTht of
this
publicatioTh
is
Thot
to
predict
if PutiTh
will
be
replaced
aThd
by
whom
iTh
2024
or some
other
date
–
iTh
fact
the
sceTharios
iTh
this Chaillot
Paper
iThclude
eight
possible
outcomes to
this
questioTh.
The
emphasis
of
this
publi - catioTh
is
oTh
more
fuThdameThtal
aThd
loThg-term uThcertaiThties
that
will
matter
regardless
of whether
PutiTh
remaiThs
iTh
power
or
Thot.
This is
what
this
publicatioTh
is
all
about:
scaThThiThg the
horizoTh,
ideThtifyiThg
the
key
uThcertaiThties aThd
prepariThg
for
the
surprises
that
the
future holds
iTh
store.
The
complexity
aThd
the
Thumber
of
social
sci - entific
variables
should
not
be
underestimated, however.
For
iThstaThce,
back
iTh
2010
several
aTh - alysts
were
poiThtiThg
out
–
aThd
rightly
so
–
that Russia’s
leadership
would
very
likely
be
uThable to
carry
out
significant
reforms
and
diversify the
resource-depeThdeTht
ecoThomy,
which
led the
aThalysts
to
predict
some
kiThd
of
political
*
The
authors
are
grateful
to
Karol
Luczka
for
his
iThvaluable
assistaThce
iTh
carryiThg
out
the
research
for
this
publicatioTh.
1
Eric
Hobsbawm,
The
Age
of
Empire
1875-1914
(New
York:
ViThtage
Books,
19...
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