下面是小编为大家整理的IT与BPO服务：制定2021年12月价格目标（范文推荐）,供大家参考。
IT
and
BPO
Services
Establishing
December
2021
Price
Targets
North America Equity Research 17
August
2020
In
this
report,
we
are
establishing
Dec
2021
price
targets
in
one
of
the
most challenging
valuation
periods
in
the
last
two
decades.
The
IT
&
BPO
services stocks have underperformed the broader market (S&P 500) YTD, despite a lower earnings cut on average. We expect some level of mean reversion in 2H, and see the sector outperforming assuming macro continues to recover. Digital pure play names (GLOB, OW rated, and EPAM, OW rated by Alexei Gogolev) significantly outperformed peers and S&P 500 YTD, and are well positioned to be long-term secular
winners,
but
we
recommend
G
(OW
rated)
and
VRTU
(OW
rated
by Puneet Jain) as our top 2H20 picks offering healthy and defensive earnings growth as well as multiple expansion potential. Digital
firms
separating
from
the
rest?
We’ve
long
believed
growth
and valuations
between
modern
and
legacy
players
would
gradually
diverge
over time, but COVID-19 has accelerated the shift, resulting in Digital firms trading at
high
premiums
vs.
history
(170%
vs.
100%
pre-COVID-19).
Premium multiples are likely here to stay as core modernization and digital migration is inevitable to satiate investors’ preference for deep secular growth, but recognize further multiple expansion is unlikely, so premium growth must persist. Turn-around stocks offer high upside potential, but caution is warranted. Firms
undergoing
turnaround
(CNDT,
DXC,
CTSH)
showed nice
progress
in 2Q, and were rewarded with a bounce in still deeply discounted valuations. We expect
demand
trends
to
get
more
complicated
in
2H,
and
building
a
track record of predictable results will be key for this group to recover further. Ranking growth in 2020-2022e. GLOB (OW) ranks the fastest growing name in our
coverage, where we are forecasting 25% and 33% rev/EPS growth next year,
with
EPAM
(OW)
also
being
very
close
with
24%
revenue
and
31% earnings growth estimates. VRTU’s CY21 earnings growth is expected to be in the
same
ballpark
(due
to
low
margins
this
year)
while
its revenue
growth
of 12%
is
well
below
Digital
pure
play
firms’.
Bottom
decile
revenue
growers include
CNDT
(N)
and
DXC
(N),
where
we
are
forecasting
low-single-digit revenue decline but 18% and 47% EPS growth, respectively. Ranking upside/downside to new price targets. Names with the greatest upside to our targets include: VRTU/OW (27%), G/OW (24%). Names with the least upside to our targets include: ACN/OW (10%), DXC/N (12%) and EXLS/N (13%). We note
our
ratings
and
recommendations
balance
share
price
upside
with
risk
in achieving those returns. G and VRTU are our favorite Overweights. We like G for improved growth in its Global Clients, as it adds to a nice backlog of transformational deals, which seems underappreciated
in
its
valuation
multiple
(18x
CY21
vs.
22x
for
BPO
peers). VRTU, by comparison, should benefit from its high earning power which could be realized with steady execution over the near term.
Payments,
Processors
&
IT Services
Tien-tsin
Huang,
CFA
AC
(1-212)
622-6632
tien-tsin.huang@jpmorgan.com
Bloomberg
JPMA
HUANG
<GO>
J.P.
Morgan
Securities
LLC
Puneet
Jain
AC
(1-212)
622-1436
puneet.x.jain@jpmorgan.com
Bloomberg
JPMA
JAIN
<GO>
J.P.
Morgan
Securities
LLC
Alexei
Gogolev
AC
(7-495)
967-1029
alexei.gogolev@jpmorgan.com
Bloomberg
JPMA
GOGOLEV
<GO>
J.P.
Morgan
Bank
International
LLC
Hitesh
Malla
(91-22)
6157-3897
hitesh.malla@jpmchase.com
J.P.
Morgan
India
Private
Limited
See page 43 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. www.jpmorganmarkets.com
Equity
Ratings
and
Price
Targets
Company
Ticker
Mkt
Cap ($
mn)
Price
($)
RatiCur
ng
Prev
Cur
Price
Target
End
Prev Date
End Date
Accenture
plc
ACN
US
148,651.20
230.25
OW
n/c
256.00
Dec-21
228.00
Dec-20
Cognizant
CTSH
US
36,209.13
66.93
N
n/c
79.00
Dec-21
69.00
Dec-20
Conduent
CNDT
US
817.69
3.91
N
n/c
—
—
n/c
n/c
DXC
DXC
US
5,176.59
20.41
N
n/c
22.00
Dec-21
19.00
Dec-20
ExlService
Holdings
Inc.
EXLS
US
2,346.76
67.83
N
n/c
77.00
Dec-21
66.00
Dec-20
Genpact
G
US
8,161.56
41.83
OW
n/c
52.00
Dec-21
46.00
Dec-20
Globant
GLOB
US
6,777.79
174.87
OW
n/c
194.00
Dec-21
179.00
Dec-20
IBM
IBM
US
112,104.10
125.27
N
n/c
148.00
Dec-21
135.00
Dec-20
Virtusa
Corp.
VRTU
US
1,428.60
40.12
OW
n/c
51.00
Dec-21
42.00
Dec-20
WNS
Holdings
Ltd.
WNS
US
3,412.65
65.84
OW
n/c
77.00
Dec-21
64.00
Dec-20
EPAM
Systems
EPAM
US
17,121.59
307.97
OW
n/c
356.00
Dec-21
240.00
Dec-20
Source:
Company
data,
Bloomberg,
J.P.
Morgan
estimates.
n/c
=
no
change.
All
prices
as
of
14
Aug
20.
Table of Contents YTD Look Back
................................................................................ 3 Appendix I: Outperformers & Underperformers in 1H18
...... 6 Appendix II: Growth Forecasts
.................................................... 8 Accenture plc
................................................................................. 11 Cognizant ......................................................................................... 13 Conduent
......................................................................................... 15 DXC
................................................................................................... 17 ExlService Holdings Inc.
.............................................................. 19 Genpact
............................................................................................ 21 Globant
............................................................................................. 23 IBM
.................................................................................................... 25 Virtusa Corp.
................................................................................... 27 WNS Holdings Ltd.
........................................................................ 29 EPAM Systems
............................................................................... 30
YTD Look Back Year to date, 2020 has been a tough year for IT services and BPO names on an overall basis, as 7 out of 11 stocks underperformed the broader market. The group, as a whole, was about in line with S&P 500’s YTD returns of 4% on average. However, YTD returns exhibited sharp separation in Digital pure plays (GLOB and EPAM) which were are up 55% YTD vs. legacy firms (DXC, CNDT, IBM) which are down 29%, as COVID-19 likely accelerates the digital mix shift. Meanwhile, many legacy companies are going through significant turnarounds under new CEOs. However, over the last three months (or since C1Q results), IT Services and BPO stocks are up a solid 40% (vs. S&P 500 up 18%), as COVID-19-driven demand headwinds proved to be easier than feared. As such, turnaround companies (such as DXC, CNDT, CTSH), significantly rebounded from deep-value trading levels, and are up 60% on an average, outperforming Digital pure plays that are up 45% during the period. BPO stocks were also up 40% over the last three months, as COVID-19- driven demand headwinds proved to be easier than feared. ACN has also yielded healthy, but steadily positive, returns this year as it benefits from Digital mix shift. IBM was the only IT services/BPO stock that underperformed the broader index over the last three months. Figure 1 and Figure 2, below, show individual stock performance and IT services sector performance relative to other S&P 500 categories.
Figure 1: Stock Returns – IT Services Universe YTD 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% -60.0%
-46.6%
-32.6%
-12.9%
-7.7%
-2.9%
-1.7%
0.1% 3.5% 8.0%
10.3%
42.7% 67.7% DXC
CNDT
VRTU IBM EXLS G WNS SPX CTSH
ACN
EPAM
GLOB Source:
Bloomberg.
Note:
Represents
year
to
date
returns
as
of
8/13/2020.
Figure 2: YTD JPM IT Services vs. S&P 500 Sector Returns 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% -38.2%
Source:
J.P.
Morgan,
Bloomberg.
Note:
IT
Services
returns
represent
the
market
cap-weighted
returns
of
the
IT
services
names
within
our
coverage
universe.
Note: Represents
year
to
date
returns
as
of
8/13/2020.
18.8% 22.2% 2.4% 3.2%
3.5% 4.7% 7.1% 7.8% -6.9% -4.8% -19.3%
Actual vs. Estimated Forward Operating Metrics Down Table 1 below shows CY20 and CY21 consensus revenue estimate revisions for our IT&BPO coverage universe since February 2020.
Revenue estimates are down for all stocks (even for CY21), and revisions are more severe than historically, expectedly due to adverse impact from COVID-19. Among individual stocks, the magnitude of change was lowest for firms with high level of recurring revenue (such as IBM and DXC) or where expectations going into the COVID-19 headwinds were already too low (e.g. at CTSH and VRTU). BPO estimates were expectedly revised down the most, and thereby offer the most upside potential. GLOB’s new estimates include benefit from gA acquisition, and hence revision may not be meaningful.
Relative to S&P 500, revisions are about even, with 6/11 companies experiencing lower revenue revisions to CY21 estimates than S&P’s (-6%), with CNDT’s revisions 460bps better than S&P’s, while WNS’s were 740bps worse off.
Table 1: Revenues – Consensus Estimates Pre/Post COVID and vs. S&P 500 Revenue
(CY20)
Revenue
(CY21)
CY21
Beat
(Miss)
vs
2/18/2020
8/7/2020
∆
2/18/2020
8/7/2020
∆
S&P
500
WNS
$969
$831
-14%
$1,071
$923
-14%
(-7.4%)
EXLS
$1,0...
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