下面是小编为大家整理的美国航空航天与国防2020年展望（全文）,供大家参考。
Aerospace and Defense A Look to 2020
North America Equity Research December 2019
Aerospace & Defense Seth M. Seifman AC (212) 622-5597 seth.m.seifman@jpmorgan.com JPMA SEIFMAN <GO> J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Ben Arnstein (212) 622-6548 benjamin.e.arnstein@jpmorgan.com
See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Valuation Metrics
Company Price Symbol Rating Shares Market
Out Cap (bn) EPS CY19E CY20E CY21E P/E CY19E CY20E CY21E EV/EBITDA CY20E CY21E EV/Sales CY20E CY21E P/FCF CY20E CY21E Price Implied Target Upside Aerospace/Integrated Arconic
Boei ng Bombardier a
Kaman Corp Spirit AeroSystems Textron TransDigm Triumph Group
Defense (Large Cap) General Dynamics Huntington Ingalls L3Ha rris Technologies Lockheed Martin Northrop Grumman Raytheon
Defense Services Booz Allen Hamilton CACI International Leidos Science Applications International
Defense (Smid Cap) Aerojet Rocketdyne b
Kratos Maxar Technologi es b
Mercury Systems Average/Total: S&P 500 (Consensus) A & D discount/(premium) $31.48 ARNC OW 445.3 14.0 $327.00 BA OW 564.7 184.7 C$ 1.90 BBD/B CT N 2914.0 4.2 $67.29 KAMN UW 28.1 1.9 $76.63 SPR N 104.6 8.0 $44.44 TXT OW 231.1 10.3 $570.32 TDG UW 56.3 32.1 $26.97 TGI N 50.3 1.4 $257 $181.10 GD N 290.9 52.7 $252.40 HII N 41.7 10.5 $199.08 LHX OW 223.1 44.4 $386.89 LMT N 283.9 109.8 $345.84 NOC OW 169.9 58.8 $217.79 RTN OW 279.4 60.9 $337 $70.00 BAH N 141.4 9.9 $242.27 CACI N 25.5 6.2 $91.53 LDOS N 145.0 13.3 $83.97 SAIC OW 59.1 5.0 $34 $45.29 AJRD N 82.8 3.8 $18.26 KTOS OW 109.9 2.0 $12.66 MAXR OW 59.6 0.8 $70.54 MRCY OW 53.2 3.8 $10 $3,193 SPX
2.12 2.35 2.90 (5.31) 13.20 19.30 (0.09) 0.04 0.09 1.78 2.33 2.54 6.50 7.25 9.05 3.45 3.50 3.95 19.25 22.08 25.41 2.90 2.95 3.14
11.93 12.75 14.00 14.05 19.30 20.50 10.00 11.40 12.95 21.70 23.85 26.05 20.60 23.30 26.35 12.00 12.45 13.55
3.08 3.53 3.98 10.13 13.03 14.08 5.00 5.45 6.00 5.42 6.20 7.25
1.70 1.65 1.80 0.31 0.45 0.49 0.79 (2.00) (1.10) 1.90 2.31 2.42
163.98 180.25 198.98
14.8x 13.4x 10.8x NM 24.8x 16.9x NM NM 16.7x NM 28.8x 26.5x 11.8x 10.6x 8.5x 12.9x 12.7x 11.3x 29.6x 25.8x 22.4x 9.3x 9.1x 8.6x 15.7x 17.9x 15.2x
15.2x 14.2x 12.9x 18.0x 13.1x 12.3x 19.9x 17.5x 15.4x 17.8x 16.2x 14.9x 16.8x 14.8x 13.1x 18.1x 17.5x 16.1x 17.6x 15.6x 14.1x
22.7x 19.9x 17.6x 23.9x 18.6x 17.2x 18.3x 16.8x 15.3x 15.5x 13.5x 11.6x 20.1x 17.2x 15.4x
26.7x 27.5x 25.2x 58.3x 40.4x 37.5x 16.0x NM NM 37.1x 30.5x 29.2x 34.5x 32.8x 30.6x 19.5x 17.7x 16.0x 14% 6% 9%
7.5x 7.1x 14.8x 11.1x 7.5x 6.9x 18.0x 16.6x 12.6x 11.0x 8.6x 8.2x 16.0x 15.0x 9.0x 8.3x 11.7x 10.5x
11.5x 11.0x 9.6x 9.4x 13.8x 12.7x 12.2x 11.4x 14.2x 12.9x 10.7x 10.0x 11.9x 11.1x
14.7x 13.5x 13.1x 12.1x 13.2x 12.6x 11.7x 10.8x 13.2x 12.2x
11.2x 10.6x 23.5x 22.0x 7.8x 8.1x 18.5x 17.3x 15.3x 14.5x
1.3x 1.2x 2.0x 1.6x 0.7x 0.7x 2.7x 2.6x 2.0x 1.7x 1.0x 1.0x 7.3x 7.0x 1.0x 1.0x 2.2x 2.1x
1.6x 1.5x 1.3x 1.2x 2.5x 2.4x 1.9x 1.8x 2.0x 1.9x 2.0x 1.9x 1.9x 1.8x
1.5x 1.4x 1.4x 1.3x 1.3x 1.3x 1.0x 1.0x 1.3x 1.2x
1.8x 1.7x 2.6x 2.5x 2.0x 2.0x 4.3x 3.9x 2.7x 2.5x
17.2x 13.8x NM 9.5x 14.5x 15.8x 29.3x 27.7x 12.3x 11.3x 13.5x 12.0x 25.7x 23.1x NM 34.0x 18.8x 18.4x
14.5x 13.3x 17.3x 13.2x 17.0x 14.9x 18.7x 17.9x 18.5x 15.7x 16.8x 16.9x 17.1x 15.3x
26.5x 18.8x 17.9x 14.3x 16.2x 14.7x 10.7x 9.2x 17.8x 14.3x
20.1x 18.0x 77.2x 39.3x NM 6.2x 45.0x 38.1x 47.4x 25.4x
$36 14% $370 13% na na $63 -6% $95 24% $52 17% $590 3% $30 11%
$210 16% $270 7% $235 18% $360 -7% $375 8% $240 10%
$77 10% $250 3% $100 9% $102 21%
$48 6% $24 31% $15 18% $80 13%
Other Financial Metrics
Company JPM Consensus JPM Consensus FY1 EPS FY1 EPS FY2 EPS FY2 EPS FCF (per share) CY20E CY21E Sales (bn) FY19E FY20E FY21E Operating Margin FY19E FY20E FY21E Dividend Payout Yield Ratio "20 Market
Net Debt EV Net
Debt / Cap "20 EBITDA YTD Return Aerospace/Integrated Arconic
Boei ng Bombardier a
Kaman Corp Spirit AeroSystems Textron TransDigm Triumph Group
Defense Primes General Dynamics Huntington Ingalls L3Ha rris Technologies Lockheed Martin Northrop Grumman Raytheon
Defense Services Booz Allen Hamilton CACI International Leidos Science Applications International
Defense (Smid Cap) Aerojet Rocketdyne b Kratos Maxar Technologi es b
Mercury Systems Average/Total: S&P 500
2.12 2.11 2.35 2.45 (5.31) 0.74 13.20 18.88 (0.07) (0.13) 0.04 0.03 1.90 1.59 2.30 2.45 6.50 6.42 7.35 7.33 3.75 3.71 3.80 3.80 22.10 21.01 24.85 24.16 2.65 2.64 3.05 3.25
11.95 11.91 12.85 12.93 14.05 13.87 19.30 19.24 5.00 10.04 5.35 11.51 21.70 21.61 23.85 24.42 20.60 20.35 23.30 23.01 12.00 11.88 12.45 12.99
3.20 3.13 3.65 3.53 12.45 12.31 13.70 13.76 5.00 5.00 5.45 5.41 5.42 5.51 6.20 6.20
1.70 1.78 1.65 1.89 0.31 0.25 0.45 0.44 0.79 1.95 (2.00) 0.77 2.13 2.09 2.32 2.40
1.84 2.29 6.72 34.34 0.13 0.12 2.29 2.43 6.21 6.76 3.30 3.69 22.20 24.69 0.33 0.79
12.46 13.61 14.57 19.09 11.70 13.32 20.66 21.63 18.72 22.01 12.98 12.86
2.64 3.72 13.52 16.89 5.66 6.22 7.86 9.09
2.25 2.51 0.24 0.46 (0.83) 2.04 1.57 1.85
14.2 14.5 15.0 79.8 98.6 119.5 16.6 17.0 16.5 1.1 0.8 0.8 7.8 7.9 9.5 13.6 13.7 14.0 5.9 6.4 6.6 3.0 2.7 2.7 142.1 161.6 184.7
39.4 41.1 42.6 8.8 9.2 9.4 19.4 20.4 21.4 59.2 62.8 65.6 33.8 35.9 37.7 29.4 31.5 33.3 190.0 200.9 210.0
6.7 7.5 8.0 5.0 5.7 6.0 11.0 11.7 12.2 6.4 6.7 7.0 29.1 31.5 33.1
2.0 2.0 2.1 0.7 0.8 0.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 5.4 5.6 5.8
7.5% 13.4% 13.9% -2.2% 11.4% 12.8% 8.4% 6.2% 7.2% 7.4% 8.5% 8.5% 11.6% 12.8% 12.0% 8.2% 8.0% 8.2% 36.0% 41.0% 42.8% -8.2% 5.5% 8.9% 13.2% 13.4% 14.3%
11.8% 11.9% 12.1% 9.0% 11.4% 11.3% 14.3% 15.2% 15.7% 14.2% 13.9% 14.3% 11.2% 11.4% 12.3% 16.5% 16.7% 17.1% 12.8% 13.4% 13.8%
9.0% 9.2% 9.4% 8.4% 8.8% 9.0% 8.1% 8.6% 8.2% 5.8% 6.5% 6.3% 7.8% 8.3% 8.2%
12.9% 12.1% 12.3% 5.1% 4.8% 6.2% 5.7% 5.8% 8.5% 11.7% 12.2% 13.0% 8.8% 8.7% 10.0%
0.3% 3.4% 2.5% 62.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 34.3% 0.6% 6.6% 0.2% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 5.4% 0.7% 14.3%
2.3% 32.0% 1.6% 21.3% 1.5% 26.3% 2.5% 40.3% 1.4% 20.6% 1.7% 30.3% 1.8% 28.5%
1.5% 30.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 25.0% 1.8% 23.9% 1.2% 19.9%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.3% 1.9%
14.0 4.4 18.4 1.8x 184.7 9.6 194.3 0.7x 4.2 7.1 11.3 4.7x 1.9 0.3 2.2 2.2x 8.0 7.9 16.0 6.3x 10.3 3.1 13.4 2.0x 32.1 14.2 46.2 4.9x 1.4 1.4 2.8 4.6x
52.7 12.7 65.4 2.2x 10.5 1.2 11.7 1.0x 44.4 6.3 50.7 1.7x 109.8 11.0 120.9 1.1x 58.8 12.7 71.5 2.5x 60.9 2.1 63.0 0.4x
9.9 1.3 11.2 1.8x 6.2 1.5 7.7 2.6x 13.3 2.4 15.7 2.0x 5.0 1.9 6.8 3.2x
3.8 (0.2) 3.6 (0.5x) 2.0 0.1 2.1 1.3x 0.8 3.1 3.8 6.3x 3.8 (0.2) 3.6 (0.8x)
88% 4% -6% 22% 7% -3% 77% 136% 18%
18% 35% 50% 52% 43% 44% 43%
58% 68% 77% 34%
29% 30% 6% 49%
30%
Pension Adjustments
Company Pension Adjusted EPS (PAEPS) CY19E CY20E CY21E P/PAEPS CY19E CY20E CY21E EBITDAP (bn) CY19E CY20E CY21E EV/EBITDAP CY19E CY20E CY21E Pension Adj FCF CY20E CY21E P/PAFCF CY20E CY21E Pension NPV Huntington Ingalls Lockheed Martin Northrop Grumman Raytheon 11.39 13.93 15.92 17.92 18.13 19.97 14.74 16.30 18.27 9.84 10.81 11.76 22.2x 18.1x 15.9x 21.6x 21.3x 19.4x 23.5x 21.2x 18.9x 22.1x 20.1x 18.5x 0.8 1.0 1.0 7.5 7.8 8.4 4.3 4.6 4.9 4.0 4.4 4.7 14.0x 12.2x 11.4x 16.1x 15.5x 14.4x 16.6x 15.4x 14.5x 15.8x 14.5x 13.4x 8.51 14.02 14.28 19.41 15.02 17.37 7.68 9.39 29.6x 18.0x 27.1x 19.9x 23.0x 19.9x 28.4x 23.2x $18 $10 $17 $20 Notes: J.P. Morgan ratings: OW = Overweight; N = Neutral; UW = Underweight; NR = Not Rated. Price targets for Dec 31, 2020. SAIC FY ends in Jan.; TGI and BAH FY ends in March; CACI and MRCY end June; TDG ends Sept. a. BBD stock price in C$ converted based on current exchange rate to calculate ratios. b. AJRD and MAXR are covered by Ben Arnstein. All EPS calculations consistent with Bloomberg consensus. Sources: Bl oomberg, compa ny reports, and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan. Note: Prices as of December 17, 2019. 2
IATA expects traffic growth in 2020 in line with 2019 at low-4%, below the long-term ~5.5% rate
After a few years of above-trend growth, this is probably manageable (5 yr CAGR would be > 6%)
Under the forecast, Asia will expand ~5% with Europe and North America at ~4%
We could see upside in North America, where US airlines have missed the MAX the most
NA Capacity expected to grow 5% in 2020 vs 2.3% in 2019 . . . But the MAX has to come back
IATA estimates airline industry net profit of $29.3 bn in 2020 vs $25.9 bn in 2019; this is high vs history
Profit estimate by region ($ bn) Traffic estimate by region
2020 profit estimate
Updated 2019 2018 profits estimate
2020 traffic forecast
2019 traffic estimate YTD traffic growth
Sources: IATA. Sources: IATA.
(through Oct) Africa -0.2 -0.2 -0.1
Africa 3.8% 3.7%
4.3% Asia-Pacific 6.0 4.9 6.1
Asia-Pacific 4.8% 4.7%
4.8% Middle East -1.0 -1.5 -1.5
Middle East 2.5% 2.6%
2.1% Latin America 0.1 -0.4 -0.8
Latin America 4.3% 4.2%
4.6% North America 16.5 16.9 14.5
North America 3.8% 3.8%
3.8% Europe 7.9 6.2 9.1
Europe 3.8% 4.5%
4.9% Global 29.3 25.9 27.3
Global 4.1% 4.2%
4.3%
NB deliveries increased ~25% in the 5 years though 2018 with ~30% growth possible off that level to 2023
NB production slots remain full with 11,198 aircraft in backlog
Airbus dominates now with ~60% of backlog
The ~4,800 MAX orders placed thus far compares to ~6,700 NGs currently in service
Competition from China: if NB production grows 3% annually from 2023-30, then Boeing/Airbus combined production would grow 1.5% if C919 takes ~10% of NB market
NB Deliveries by Platform, 2014-23E NB Backlog by Platform
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2014 2015 2016 2017
2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 737 A320 Family E-190/95 A220
Source: Company
Reports and JPM estimates. Source: Company Reports. Note: Table provides backlog as on 11/30/2019.
Aircraft Family Backlog 737 4,405 A320...
推荐访问:美国航空航天与国防2020年展望 美国 航空航天 国防
