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BIS Papers No 111 Inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific
Monetary
and
Economic
Department
March 2020
Papers
in
this
volume
were
prepared
for
the
BSP-BIS
Conference
on
“Inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific” held in Manila, the Philippines on 19–20 August 2019. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the
BIS
or
the
central
banks
represented
at
the
meeting.
Individual
papers
(or excerpts
thereof)
may
be
reproduced
or
translated
with
the
authorisation
of
the authors concerned.
This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org).
© Bank for International Settlements 2020. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated.
ISSN 1682-7651 (online) ISBN 978-92-9259-342-1 (online)
Contents Conference
programme
....................................................................................................................... 1
List
of
participants
.................................................................................................................................. 3
Opening remarks Benjamin
E
Diokno
................................................................................................................................. 7
Keynote speech The
anchoring
of
long-run
inflation
expectations
today
Ricardo
Reis
............................................................................................................................................ 11
Contributed papers What
drives
inflation
in
advanced
and
emerging
market
economies?
Güneş
Kamber,
Madhusudan
Mohanty,
and
James
Morley
......................................... 21
Comments
on
“What
drives
inflation
in
advanced
and
emerging
market economies?”
Hans
Genberg
........................................................................................................................................ 37
Robots
and
labour:
implications
for
inflation
dynamics
Ippei
Fujiwara
and
Feng
Zhu
............................................................................................................ 41
Comments
on
“Robots
and
labour:
implications
for
inflation
dynamics”
Yong
Sung
Chang
................................................................................................................................ 51
The
pass-through
from
short-horizon
to
long-horizon
inflation
expectations
James
Yetman
.................................................................................................................... 55
Comments
on
“The
pass-through
from
short-horizon
to
long-horizon
inflation expectations”
Masazumi
Hattori
.............................................................................................................. 67
Can
an
ageing
workforce
explain
low
inflation?
Benoît
Mojon
and
Xavier
Ragot
....................................................................................... 73
Comments
on
“Can
an
ageing
workforce
explain
low
inflation?”
Kenichi
Sakura
........................................................................................................................................ 81
Strategic
complementarity
and
asymmetric
price
setting
among
firms
Maiko
Koga,
Koichi
Yoshino
and
Tomoya
Sakata
.......................................................... 85
Comments
on
“Strategic
complementarity
and
asymmetric
price
setting
among firms”
Martin
Berka
....................................................................................................................... 99
Impact
of
relative
price
changes
and
asymmetric
adjustments
on
aggregate inflation:
evidence
from
the
Philippines
Joselito
R.
Basilio
and
Faith
Christian
Q
Cacnio
........................................................... 103
Comments
on
“Impact
of
relative
price
changes
and
asymmetric
adjustments
on aggregate
inflation:
evidence
from
the
Philippines”
Renée
Fry-McKibbin
........................................................................................................ 123
Previous
volumes
in
this
series
..................................................................................................... 128
ii BIS Papers No 111
Programme
18 August 2019, Sunday 19:00 Welcome dinner
19 August 2019, Monday 08:45–09:00 Welcome coffee
09:00–09:15 Opening remarks by BSP Governor Benjamin E Diokno 09:15–09:30
Photo session Session I Chair: Dennis Lapid (BSP)
09:30–10:50 Paper
1:
What
drives
inflation
in
advanced
and
emerging market economies? Güneş Kamber (IMF), Madhusudan Mohanty (BIS) and James Morley (University of Sydney)
Discussant: Hans Genberg (Asia School of Business)
10:50–11:10 Coffee break
11:10–12:30 Paper
2:
Robots
and
labour:
implications
for
inflation dynamics Ippei Fujiwara (Keio University) and Feng Zhu (Ant Financial) Discussant: Yong Sung Chang (Seoul National University) 12:30–13:50 Lunch
13:50–14:50 Keynote address Chair: Benoît Mojon (BIS) Speaker:
Ricardo
Reis
(London
School
of
Economics
and Political Science) Title: The anchoring of long-run inflation expectations today
14:50–15:20 Coffee break
Session II Chair: Jason Wu (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)
15:20–16:40 Paper
3:
The
pass-through
from
short-horizon
to
long- horizon inflation expectations James Yetman (BIS) Discussant: Masazumi Hattori (Nihon University) 16:40–18:00 Paper 4: Can an ageing workforce explain low inflation? Benoît Mojon (BIS) and Xavier Ragot (OFCE and Sciences- Po)
Discussant: Kenichi Sakura (Bank of Japan)
18:30 Conference dinner
20 August 2019, Tuesday 08:15–08:30 Welcome coffee
Session III Chair: Ilhyock Shim (BIS)
08:30–09:50 Paper
5:
Strategic
complementarity
and
asymmetric
price setting among firms Maiko Koga (Bank of Japan), Koichi Yoshino (Bank of Japan) and Tomoya Sakata (Bank of Japan)
Discussant: Martin Berka (Massey University)
09:50–11:10 Paper
6:
Impact
of
relative
price
changes
and
asymmetric adjustments
on
aggregate
inflation:
evidence
from
the Philippines Joselito Basilio (BSP) and Faith Cacnio (BSP)
Discussant: Renée Fry-McKibbin (Australian National University)
11:10–11:30 Coffee break
11:30–12:50 Policy panel on “Central bank policy under changing inflation dynamics: challenges for Asia-Pacific” Chair: Francisco Dakila Jr (BSP) Panellists: Christian Hawkesby (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) Hyungsik Kim (Bank of Korea) Benoît Mojon (BIS) 12:50–13:00
Closing remarks by Benoît Mojon (BIS) 13:00–14:30 Farewell lunch
List
of
Participants
Central Banks China People’s Bank of China Huide Luan Deputy Director Statistics & Analysis Department
Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong Monetary Authority Jason Wu Head of Economic Research
India Reserve Bank of India Ashok Sahoo Adviser Department of Economic and Policy Research
Indonesia Bank Indonesia Ratih Puspitasari Assistant Director Economic and Monetary Policy Department
Japan Bank of Japan Maiko Koga (via WebEx) Director Research and Statistics Department Kenichi Sakura Director Research and Statistics Department
Korea Bank of Korea Hyungsik Kim Director, Inflation Research Division Research Department
Malaysia Central Bank of Malaysia Eilyn Chong Senior Economist Monetary Policy Department
New Zealand Reserve Bank of New Zealand Christian Hawkesby Assistant Governor | General Manager Economics, Financial Markets and Banking Group
Philippines Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Benjamin Diokno Governor
Francisco Dakila Jr Deputy Governor Monetary and Economics Sector Dennis Lapid Director Department of Economic Research Laura Ignacio Director Centre for Monetary and Financial Policy Joselito Basilio Acting Deputy Director Department of Economic Research Faith Cacnio Senior Economist Centre for Monetary and Financial Policy
Thailand Bank of Thailand Krislert Samphantharak Executive Director Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research Surach Tanboon Director Monetary Policy Department Paiboon Pongpaichet Assistant Director Monetary Policy Department
Academic institutions Australia Australian National University Renée Fry-McKibbin Professor of Economics Crawford School of Public Policy University of Sydney James Morley Professor of Macroeconomics School of Economics
Japan Keio University Ippei Fujiwara Professor, Faculty of Economics Nihon University Masazumi Hattori Professor, College of Economics
Korea Seoul National University Yong Sung Chang Professor, Department of Economics
Malaysia Asia School of Business Hans Genberg Professor of Economics Associate Director of Central Banking
New Zealand Massey University Martin Berka Professor of Macroeconomics Director, New Zealand Centre for Macroeconomics School of Economics and Finance
United Kingdom London School of Economics and Political Science Ricardo Reis Arthur Williams Phillips Professor of Economics Department of Economics
BIS Switzerland Bank for International Settlements Benoît Mojon Head of Economic Analysis Monetary and Economic Department (MED)
Hong Kong SAR BIS Representative Office for Asia and the Pacific Ilhyock Shim Head of Economics and Financial Markets for Asia and the Pacific, MED James Yetman Principal Economist, MED
Opening remarks
Benjamin E Diokno 1
A very good morning to all and welcome to this year’s Annual Research Conference. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), which is currently celebrating the 70th year of central banking in the Philippines, is pleased to co-host this conference with the Bank for International Settlements. The theme for this year is “Inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific”. For central bankers, this provides an opportunity to discuss and think about issues that have direct implications for the core mandate of central banks. For academics and research economists, this is a policy-relevant research area t...
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