下面是小编为大家整理的菲律宾2020年市场策略展望：对未来增长信心【完整版】,供大家参考。
Equity Research Asia Pacific | Philippines
Figure 1: Philippines’ P/E relative to APxJ P/E at eight-year low now
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
Research Analysts Hazel Tanedo 63 2 885 87757
hazel.tanedo@credit-suisse.com
Chesca Bugia-Tenorio 63 2 885 87752
chesca.bugia-tenorio@credit-suisse.com
Danielo Picache 1.0
0.9
PCOMP P/E relative to APxJ P/E now at eight-year low 63 2 885 87758
danielo.picache@credit-suisse.com Nov 2010 Nov 2011
Nov 2012 Nov 2013
Nov 2014 Nov 2015 Nov 2016 Nov 2017 Nov 2018 Nov 2019
PCOMP P/E relative to MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan P/E
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates 12-month target set at 9,200. We set our PSEi 12-month target for 2020 at 9,200, which is
19%
above
the current levels and implies
a
2020E P/E of 17.0x. We expect EPS to rise by 12.4% next year and anticipate a further improvement in ROEs by ~0.5 pp. We believe the index should rerate alongside a continued growth trend driven by: (1) a recovery in household & discretionary spending, (2) increased government expenditures, (3) improved system liquidity and (4) peso trading sideways after improving in 2019. Why are we confident? The lagged effects of low inflation and interest rates will continue to support demand recovery. Real interest rates remain favourable, supporting a strong peso. We expect this to lead to margin expansion for several companies. We are also positive on the catch-up spending of the government and on the infrastructure rollout as the flagship projects are rationalised. Ultimately, excess system-wide liquidity, combined with infrastructure spending, will serve as catalysts in 2020, rather than a risk as some perceive. Are fundamentals enough for a re-rating? Market liquidity, which exhibits a correlation with market valuations, has been on a decline for a majority of the last five years. Despite the recent pick up, valuations have decoupled and remain relatively low. We argue that there is room for a recoupling. Regulatory risk has also risen in recent weeks, with President Duterte attempting to revoke long-standing government contracts. We note that considerable portions of most conglomerates are not highly exposed to this regulatory risk. We still prefer Banks and Consumer. Our model portfolio is Overweight on banks and consumer. We are Market Weight on conglomerates, with preference for the ones that are exposed to the consumer sector. Our top conviction picks for the market include Metrobank (MBT), Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI), GT Capital (GTCAP), Megawide (MWIDE) and Robinsons Retail (RRHI). Varun Ahuja, CFA 65 6212 3017
varun.ahuja@credit-suisse.com
Justin Cimafranca 63 2 885 87756
justin.cimafranca@credit-suisse.com
DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does
and
seeks
to
do
business Philippines Market Strategy 2020 Outlook: Confidence on the growth ahead Strategy | Strategy
with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could
33%
47%
19%
Focus charts and table Figure 2: We forecast 2020 EPS to grow by 12.4%...
Figure 3: …and expect ROEs to improve further
30 26.9
25
20
15
10
5
0 KR IN APxJ
TW ID
PH - CS
CN PH - Cons
TH HK MY AU SG
13.5%
13.0%
12.5%
12.0%
11.5%
11.0%
10.5%
2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E DuPont ROE (Index ex-Banks) Net Income Margin (Index ex-Banks)
10.6%
10.4%
10.2%
10.0%
9.8%
9.6%
9.4%
9.2%
9.0%
8.8%
8.6%
Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL TM service, Credit
Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Figure 4: Valuations remain cheap, despite a pickup in market liquidity in recent months
Figure 5: Regulatory risk has risen, but conglomerates are well diversified and exposure is relatively minimal
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400 22 100%
21 20 80% 19 60% 18
17 40%
16 20% 15
14 0% 5%
1%
99%
Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 Trailing 6 month Turnover (P bn) - 3 month lagged PCOMP Forward P/E (RHS) DMC MPI AC JGS MWIDE SMC AGI GTCAP SM LTG None
Low
Medium
High
Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL TM service, Credit
Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Figure 6: Credit Suisse top outperformers & top relative underperformers for 2020
Name Ticker
Rating Price TP U/D
Mcap P/E (x) ROE (%)
EPS Growth (%)
bn US$
18A
19E 20E 18A 19E 20E 18A 19E 20E TOP OUTPERFORMERS
GT Capital GTCAP.PS
O
856.0
1,053.0
23%
3.6
13.5
11.1
9.9
8.7
9.9
10.2
-10.0
21.5 11.9
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co MBT.PS
O
66.2
87.0
31%
5.9
12.8
10.5
9.0
8.4
9.2
9.9
6.3
22.7 16.1
Robinsons Retail Holdings, Inc. RRHI.PS
O
74.1
108.0
46%
2.3
20.1
22.7
19.8
9.7
7.3
7.9
-8.6
-11.6 14.8
TOP RELATIVE UNDERPERFORMERS
Alliance Global Group Inc AGI.PS
U
11.4
10.8
-5%
2.2
7.6
6.9
6.4
10.3
11.2
11.6
1.3
9.7 9.1
Filinvest Land FLI.PS
U
1.5
1.4
-3%
0.7
6.0
5.6
4.9
9.1
9.2
9.7
3.7
8.1 13.6
Megaworld Corp MEG.PS
U
4.1
4.2
2%
2.6
8.6
7.6
7.2
10.2
10.5
10.4
15.8
13.1 6.2
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates 66% 90% 23.5 12.6 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.3 10.0 8.7 6.3 6.0 3.6 3.6
10.5%
10.1%
9.9%
9.7%
11.8%
9.3%
11.6% 12.4% 12.7% 13.1%
37%
63%
31%
51% 13% 82% 83% 91% 9% 10%
34%
18% 3% 14%
100%
Confidence in the growth ahead 12-month target at 9,200 We set our PSEi 12-month target for 2020 at 9,200, which is
19%
above
the current levels
and implies a 2020 P/E of 17.0x—close to 1 standard deviation below the five-year average. Our model forecasts 2020 EPS growth of 12.4%. We believe the index should rerate alongside
a better macro-economic backdrop and clearer catalysts ahead. The latest GDP report came in better than expected as it was up 6.2% YoY. We believe this growth trend will flow through to 2020 driven by: (1) the recovery in household and discretionary spending, (2) an acceleration of government spending and progress in the infrastructure build out, (3) improved system liquidity and (4) the peso trading sideways after improving for the majority of 2019. Why are we more confident this time around? The positive macro indicators only began in 3Q19 and we anticipate an upside risk for both 4Q19 and 1H20, given a low base for the first half of this year. The lag effects of low inflation and interest rates should continue to support demand recovery. But, more importantly, real interest rates remain favourable to the Philippines, supporting a strong peso. This, in turn, supports cost recovery and delivers margin expansion for several companies. Moreover, the catch-up spending of the government and the infrastructure spending through 100 flagship projects should serve as a visible catalyst for the next few years highlighting the government"s 2019 disbursements almost maximised with local agencies now prepared to do a catch-up spending and as the rationalised flagship projects are geared towards more viable starts and completion in the next few years. Lastly, continued investments of companies, as highlighted by the higher capex spending in 2019-20, with overall healthy balance sheets and demand can further support earnings and ROE expansion. We see system-wide liquidity and infrastructure as catalysts rather than risks in 2020, given the year of catch-up spending and no campaign period, as well as excess liquidity reaching high levels by end-2019, since July 2017. A scenario analysis on the risks of the rerating story Despite our confidence on the growth and positive outlook ahead, we acknowledge the lingering concerns investors continue to have as we wrap up this year. Are fundamentals enough for a re-rating for the Philippines? What are the risks to the re-rating story of the Philippines? Market liquidity, which exhibits a strong correlation with market valuations, has been on a decline for a majority of the last five years. Despite picking up this year, however, valuations have decoupled and remained relatively low. We argue that there is room for a recoupling. Regulatory risk has also risen in recent weeks, with President Duterte attempting to revoke long-standing government contracts in the water sector. That being said, we note that considerable portions of most conglomerates are not highly exposed to this regulatory risk. We still prefer the banking & consumer sectors We are confident on our 2020 earnings growth prospect of 12.4%, with a potential upside risk given more visible fundamental catalysts. Our outlook on real returns this year has materialised mainly from catalysts such as the inflation downtrend and a slowdown in capital investments. Top-line conversion or asset turnover with scale began to kick-in during 2019, providing the necessary growth in earnings. Margin recovery and lower interest expense growth provides a boost to EPS this time around, providing more visibility on EPS conversion vs previous years.
We prefer sectors with strong earnings growth potential and increasing returns for our 12- month view. Our model portfolio is Overweight on banks and consumer. We are Market Weight on conglomerates, with preference for the ones that are exposed to the consumer sector. Due to regulatory headwinds and the overhang of a third player entering the telecommunications space, we are underweight on telecoms. Our top conviction picks for the market include Metrobank (MBT), Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI), GT Capital (GTCAP), Megawide
(MWIDE) and Robinsons Retail (RRHI).
We set our 2020 year-end target at 9,200, implying 17.0x forward P/E
We are confident given: (1) upside risk in 1H20 due to a low base; (2) favourable real interest rates; (3) rationalised infrastructure spending; and (4) an anticipated ROE expansion
Market liquidity and regulatory risks weigh on sentiment, but we still believe an upward rerating is likely
Our preferred sectors ...
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