下面是小编为大家整理的美国百货零售：Covid-19如何能永久地改变这个行业【完整版】,供大家参考。
G l o b al R e sear c h
29
A p r il
2020
U .S .
H a r dlin e s
&
G r o c e r y
R e t ail
U BS
E v i de nc e
L ab
inside :
H o w
C o v id - 1 9
C o ul d P e r man e ntly
Ch a n g e
Th e
Se ctor ?
De e p
Di v e
Sli d e s
T h i s
i n - d e p t h
r e p o r t
e x p l o r e s
c han g e s
i n
c o nsum er
b eh avi o r
I n a
pos t
C ov i d-19 w or l d, c ha nge s
i n h ow
c ons um e r s
li ve , w ork, ea t , s hop, a nd s pe nd l ei s u re
ti me
c ou l d h ave
mean i ng fu l
i mp ac ts
on th e
h ard li n e , bro ad li n e , & fo od retai l ers . Th es e
c h an g es
are
unp re d i c tab l e.
F or no w , w e
c an
s i mp l y
op i n e.
Ho w ev er,
f r a m i ng t he pot e nt i a l
i m pa c t s
ca n he l p t o u nde r s t a nd w ho s t a nd s
t o ga i n & l ose . F or i ns t a nc e , a s
of 2017, 27%
of
U S
c ons um e r s
li ve d i n ur ba n s e tt i ngs , 5 2%
li ve d i n s ubur bs , & 21%
li ve d i n ru ral
areas . L oo ki ng at
retai l ers
b y
popu l ati on d en s i ty
( UB S
Ev i d en ce
L ab
d ata)
s ho w s T S CO
( av g
of
35k
pe op l e
pe r
10
m i n
r a di us )
&
DG
( av g
of
40k
pe opl e
p e r
10
m i n rad i u s )
h ave
th e
mo s t
po ten t i al
to
c ap tu re
c u s to mers
i f
p eo p l e
l eave
h i gh l y
urb an
areas . T h e
g r o ce r y
se ct o r
co u l d
se e
t h e
m o st p r o n o un ce d
sa l e s
li f t s
B etw een
th e
s h are
s h i ft
to
fo od
at
ho me
an d
th e
i n c rea s ed
p en etrati on
o f
on li n e gro c ery , th e
fo od retai l
s ec to r c ou l d s ee
l ong- l a s t i ng c ha nge s
t ha t
w ill
ha ve
pr of ound i mp ac ts . F or i n s tan c e,
i f
w e
as s u me
1,000 bp s
o f
s p en d i ng s h i fts
fro m F ood A w ay
F rom H om e
t o F ood at
Ho me,
i t
w ou l d tran s l ate
to
700-800 bp s
o f
c omp li ft
fo r K R
& SF M , 600-700
bps
f or
BJ
&
DG ,
a nd
500-600
bp s
fo r
W M T.
Si mi l arl y ,
c on s u mers
h ave i n creas ed
th e
numb er
o f
es s en ti al s
retai l er s
th ey
s hop
po s t - C ov i d
t o
5.1
f rom
4.1. G o i ng
b ac k
to
th e
p re - C ov i d
l ev el
w ou l d
li kel y
b en efi t
th e
w areh ou s e
c l ub s
a s
th ey o ffer
a
c omp el li ng c ombo o f
l o w
p ri c e,
h i gh qu al i ty
& l arg e
qu an ti ty . H o w
w ill
w a ll e t
sha r e
sh i f t s
i mpa ct
se ct o r s?
Th ere
c ou l d b e
man y
i mp ac ts
h ere.
F or i n s tan c e,
s o me
o f
th e
$800b o f
an nu al
l ei s ur e trav el
s p en d
c ou l d
s h i ft
to
th e
ho me
c ateg o ry .
F or
ev er y
25
bp s
o f
w al l et
s h are
th a t s h i fts ,
i t
c ou l d
tran s l ate
to
600-800
bp s
o f
c omp
gro w th
f or
HD
&
L O W.
Si mi l arl y ,
a r e duc t i on i n gy m m e m be r s hi p s
c oul d a dd 75 b ps
t o DK S ’
SSS
gr ow t h. W ill
t h e
co st o f
d o i n g
b us i n e ss
i n cr e a se ?
So me
i nno v ati on s
th at
are
emerg i ng
are
li kel y
h ere
to
s tay ,
i n c l ud i ng
c urb s i d e fu l fi llmen t , retai l
b y
ap po i n tme n t,
& au to mat i on. W e
th i nk th i s
w ill
d ri ve
up c o s ts
i n th e s ho rt
run as
c urb s i d e
f u l fi ll me n t
req u i res
i n c remen tal
l ab or
an d retai l
b y
ap po i n tme n t c an
li mi t
c ro w d s i z es . L ong er
term,
w e
b el i eve
th o s e
th at
i n v es t
i n au to mati on w ill
b e b es t
po s i ti on e d.
G en eral
merc h an d i s e
s to re s
( 47
empl o yee s
/
s t o re
on
av erag e)
& G ro c ers
( 21 on av erag e)
li kel y
h ave
th e
mo s t
fl ex i b ili ty
i n au to mat i ng ce r t a i n j obs , gi ve n th ei r h i gh er
empl o yee
c oun t s . Th i s
c ou l d b en e fi t
W M T,
TG T,
an d K R .
Mi ch ael
Lasser
A na l ys t m i cha e l.l a ss e r @ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
2440
D en n i s
G ei g er ,
CFA A na l ys t de nni s .ge i ge r @ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
9313
Mar k C ar d e n
A na l ys t m a rk .ca r de n@ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
3218
A t u l
Mah esw ar i ,
CFA Asso c i a t e
An a l y st a t ul.m a he s w a r i @ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
4103
Mi ch ael
G o l d sm i t h
A na l ys t m i cha e l .gol ds m i t h@ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
2951
F i g u r e
1 :
H i st o r i ca l
U S
U r b an
/
R u r a l
P o pu l a t i o n
S p li t
F i g u r e
2 :
R e t a il e r
S t o r e
F oo t p r i n t
B y
A v e r a g e
H o u se h o l d
i n c o m e
( 000s )
an d
Po pu l at i o n
( 000s
–
10
m i n
d r i ve)
100 %
8 0%
$80
$70
W eg m an s
D KS
BJ
T GT KR
C OS T
A l be r t s ons
Tr ad er
J o es WFM
S FM
Bi g 5 S por t i ng 6 0%
F l oor i ng HD
MH K
G oods
FN D
$60 P ub lix
A me ri c a
GO
A ld i
4 0%
NAP A WM T
LO W Sam " s
C l ub S po rtsma n s
P e p Boy s
2 0%
0 %
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
$50
$40 TSC O DG
Sav e -A- Lo t
AAP
FD O
D LT R O R LY
A c a d e my
S po rts A ZO
Urba n R ur a l
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
S our ce :
Ce n s us
B ur ea u, U BS
S our ce :
U B S
Ev i d en ce
L ab
www .u b s.co m / i n vest m en t r esea r ch
Th i s
rep o rt
h as
b een
p rep ared
b y
UB S
Se c u ri ti es
LLC .
ANAL YS T
C E R T I F IC AT I O N
AND
R E Q UI R E D
DIS C L O S UR E S
B E G I N
O N PA G E
51 .
UB S
do es
an d s eeks
to
do
bu s i n es s
w i th
c omp an i es
c o v ered
i n i ts
res earc h r ep o rts .
As
a
re s u l t , i n v es t o rs
s hou l d b e aw are
th at
th e
fi rm may
h ave
a
c on fl i c t
o f
i n teres t
th at
c ou l d affec t
th e
ob j ec ti v i ty
o f
t h i s
rep o rt.
I n ve s to rs
s hou l d c on s i d er
th i s rep o rt
as
on l y
a
s i ng l e
fac to r i n maki ng th ei r i n v es tmen t
d ec i s i on. Ret ai l er s , Br oad li ne
Am er i cas
Equit ies
* U B S
Ev i den c e
L ab
i s
a
se ll - s i d e
t e a m
of
e xpe r ts ,
i ndepende nt
of
U BS
Re s e ar ch,
t ha t
wo r k a cr os s
12
pr a ct i c e
ar e a s
a nd
45
s p e ci ali zed
la bs
cr e a t i ng
i ns i ght - r ead y
d at as et s .
Th e
ex p er ts
t u r n da t a
i nt o
e vi denc e
by
a ppl yi ng
a
com bi na t i on
of
t ool s
a nd
t e chni qu e s
t o
ha r ve st ,
cl e a nse ,
a nd conne ct
bi lli ons
of
da t a
i t e m s
e a ch
mont h.
S i nce
2014,
U BS
Re s e ar ch
A na l ysts
ha ve
ut ili zed
t h e e xpe r t i s e
of
U BS
E vi dence
La b
fo r
i ns i ght - r e a dy
d a t a s e ts
on
comp a nie s ,
s ector s ,
a nd
t he m e s , r e s ul t i ng
i n
t he
p r oduct i on
of
ove r
3,000
di ff e r ent ia t e d
U BS
Re s e ar ch
r e por ts .
U BS
E vi dence
La b doe s
not
pr ovi de
r e s e ar ch,
i nve st m ent
r e com m e n da t i ons ,
or
a dvi ce ,
but
pr ovi de s
i ns i ght - r e a dy da t a s e ts
f or
f u r t h e r
a na l ys i s
by
U BS
Re s e ar ch
a nd
by
cl i ent s .
V al u at i o n
M et h o d
an d
R i s k St at e m en t
In ve s t ing
in
r e t a il
s t oc k s
e nt a il s
c e r t a i n
r i s k s ,
i nc l uding
but
not
li m i t e d
t o
c ha nge s
i n c ons um e r
s pe nding
a nd
i t s
c om pone nt s ,
r e t a il
i ndu s t r y
c om pe t i t i on
a nd
gene r a l m ar ket
r is k.
O ur
pr ic e
t ar get s
ar e
b as ed
on
a
mu l t i p le
an al y s i s .
U BS
E vi de nce
La b
use s
App
A na l yt i cs
by
S ens or
T ow e r,
a
l ea d i ng
pr ov i de r
o f
m ar ket
in t elli g en c e a nd
i ns i ght s
f or
t he
gl oba l
a pp
e conom y
t o
h e l p
ans w e r
que s t i ons
r e l a t e d
t o
com pa n y pe r f orm a nce
a nd
mobi l e
a pp
s t r a t e gy.
U BS
E vi denc e
La b
t r a ck s
da il y
r a nk i ngs
a nd
dow nl oa d s da t a
f or
t hous a n ds
of
mobi l e
a ppl i ca t i ons
i n
t he
i OS
a nd
Googl e
P l a y
s t or e
a cr os s
mor e
t ha n
50 ge ogr a phi e s .
D a il y
dow nl oa d
e s t i m a t e s
a r e
pr ovide d
by
a n
a l gor i t hm
t r a i ne d
on
t hi s
r a nk i ng
da t a a nd
t he
a ct ua l
d ow nl oa d
num be r s
of
50,00 0+ a pp s .
Ra nk i ngs
da t a
i s
a ggr e ga t e d
by
w ee k
a nd do w nlo ad
s h ar e
es t imat es
ar e
ag gr e ga t e d
by
mon t h.
T hi s
r e por t
l eve r a ge s
t he
f ol l ow i ng
U BS E vi de nce
La b
a ss e t :
U S
Onl i ne
Groc e r y
App
M oni t or.
T he
U BS
E vi de nce
La b
l eve r a ge s
a
g l oba l
da t a ba s e
of
70M+
bus i ne ss
ro of t ops
t ha t
i s
t horoughl y cl eanse d
f or
l oca li za t i on
a ccur a cy,
o w ne r s hip,
i ndus t r y,
bir t h
a nd
de a t h
da t e s
a nd
ot he r
k e y f ea t ur e s
f or
ea ch
r oof t op.
T hi s
r e por t
l eve r a ge s
t he
f ol l ow i ng
U BS
E v i de nce
La b
a ss e t :
U S Gr oce r y
L oca t i on
C om pe t i t i on
M od e l ,
U S
Gr oce r y
Loca t i on
M a rk e t
Qu a li t y
M oni t or,
U S
Gr oce r y D e mogr a phi c
M o de l ,
U S
Gr oce r y
R e gi ona l
E xpos ur e
M ode l .
T he
U BS
E vi d e nce
La b
use s
a dva n ce d
ge os pa t i a l
a n a l ys e s
t e chnique s
t o
e nha nce
t he s e
r oof t op s w i t h
propr i e t a r y
m e t r i cs
t ha t
e xpl a i n
t he
qua li t y
of
a
com pa ny"s
phys i ca l
f oot pr i nt .
Requi r ed D i s c l os ur e s
T hi s
r e por t
ha s
be e n
pr e pa r e d
by
U BS
S e c ur i t i e s
LL C ,
a n
a ff ili a t e
of
U BS
A G .
U BS
A G ,
i t s
s ub s i di a r i e s ,
br a nche s
a nd
a ff ili a t e s ar e
r e f er r ed
t o
h er ei n
as
U B S.
F or
i nf orm a t i on
on
t he
w a y s
i n
w hi c h
U BS
m a nage s...
