下面是小编为大家整理的美国航空业：飞机客舱社交距离,供大家参考。
G l o b al R e sear c h
4
J un e
2020
US
Air li n e s
UB S
E vi d e n ce
L ab
I ns i d e :
Don " t
Si t
So Clos e
To M e ;
A
L ook
At
Air cr af t
Cab i n
Soci al
Di s tan ci n g
W ha t
d o e s
a
s o ci a ll y
d i st an c e
a i r p l an e
m e an
f o r
a i r li n e
eco n o m ics
Th e
res u l ts
o f
th e
an al y s i s
i nd i c ates
ev en
i n
th e
mo s t
l e n i en t
ap pro ac h
to
s o c i al d i s tan c i ng on ai rc raft
w h i c h o v erl ay s
group boo ki ng tren d s , th e
b es t
ai rli n e s
c an
g et
to is
~ 65-70 %
l o ad
fac to rs
( L F ) .
O v er
th e
l as t
few
years
US
a irli n e s
on
av erag e
n eed e d 70 %+
L F
to
b reak - ev en
(B E) ,
s o
c l earl y
th i s
i s
no t
a
L T
s o l u ti on.
Us i ng
a
200
s eat 737 M AX
an d remo v i ng th e
mi dd l e
s eat
w ou l d res u l t
i n a
m ax
po ten ti al
l o a d fac to r o f
~66 % ; ho w ev er,
as
s ho w n i n th e
an al y s i s , th e
L F
fo r th i s
p l an e
c ou l d i n crease
to
~72 % w he n t a k i ng i nt o acc ount
group book i ng t r e n ds . M a ny
a i r li ne s
ha ve
i m pl e m e nt e d s oc i a l di s t a nc i ng pr ot oc ol s
on boa rd a nd w e
out li ne
t hos e
i n t he
r e por t . I n t he
e nd, i t " s
c l ea r th at
a
s o c i al
d i s tan ce
c ab i n
i s
un s u s tai n a b l e
i n
th e
medi um
term
to
g et
t o
p rev i ou s pr of i t
l ev el s ,
bu t
i n
t h e
n ear - term
ai rli n e s
ar e
do i ng
w h ate v er
i t
takes
to
g et
s eat s fi ll ed …ev en
i f
i t
i s
on l y
mi dd l e
an d
ai s l es
to
s to p
burn i ng
c as h.
W e
s ee
L UV
a s
b es t pos i t i o ne d
t o
abs orb
ne a r- i n
s t i mu l ati ve
tac ti c s
li ke
th i s
bo t h
b ec au s e
o f
th ei r
b ette r b al an ce
s h eet , bu t
al s o b ec au s e
o f
th ei r h i s t o ri c al l y
l o w er
req u i red
B EL F s . L ay o u t s
o f
a
s o ci a ll y
d i st an c e
a i r p l an e
UB S
Ev i d en ce
L ab
c ondu c ted
an
an al y s i s
on w h at
a
s o c i al l y
d i s tan t
fl y i ng fu t u re
c ou l d l ook li ke.
Th ey
u s ed
v ari ou s
po ten ti al
c ab i n c on fi gu rati on s
t o h el p u s
es ti m ate
ai rli n e l o ad
fac to rs .
Sp ec i fi c al l y ,
th e
an al y s i s
l oo ke d
at
4
ai rc raft
t y p es ;
tw o
n arr o w bod i es ( 737M A X
a nd A 320)
a nd t w o w i de bo di e s
( 787-9 an d A350 ) . Eac h ai rc raft
ty p e
w as
run th rough 3 d i ffe ren t
s c enari o s
tes ti ng s i ng l e
trav el ers
an d group s
o f
2&3 ac ro ss
v ari ou s c ab i n
c on fi gur ati on s
acc ommod ati ng
6 ft
d i s tan c i ng
b etw e en
trav el ers
an d/or
ru l e s d eman d i ng an
op en
s eat , w al l
or i s l e
to
th e
ri gh t
an d l eft
o f
eac h p as s en g er/ group. W h e r e
a r e
t h e
d i ff e r e n t
si d e s
o n
t h e
su b j e ct ?
Th e
ai rli n e
i ndu s try
h as
b een
rec ep ti ve
to
i mp l emen ti ng d i ffe ren t
meas u res
t o h el p no t on l y
red u ce
th e
po ten ti al
fo r
tran s mi tti ng
c oron av i ru s
w h il e
fl y i ng
bu t
al s o
to
en s ur e th at
th e
pub li c
i s
c o mfo rtab l e
f l y i ng ag a i n. Th e
mai n pu s hb ac k fro m i ndu s try
i s
aro und i mp l emen t i ng s o c i al
d i s tan c i ng p rac ti c es
on p l an es . Th e
mo s t
c ommon i d ea
o f
l eav i ng th e
mi dd l e
s eat
emp ty
i s
s i mp l e
en ough bu t
do es
li ttl e
w i th
regard s
to
th e
s tan d ard
6 ft soc ia l
d i st a n c in g c ir c le
( se a t s
a re
<20 i n w i d e
an d y ou " re
<3 ft
fro m th e
p ers on b eh i nd/ i n f r ont
of
y ou)
a nd w oul d li m i t
t h e
L F
on a
200 s ea t
t y pi ca l
3x 3 na rr ow bo dy
t o ~ 66% .
F i g u r e
1 :
U S
A ir line
C o ver ag e
B r eakeven L o ad
F ac t o r
A n al ys i s
Myl es
W a l ton,
P hD ,
CF A
A na l ys t m yl e s .w a l t on@ ub s .com
+1 -617-439
8501
Ti m ot hy
Fur c ill o A na l ys t t i m ot hy.fur ci ll o@ ubs .com
+1 -617-439
8103
Loui s
Raf f et t o, C FA
A na l ys t l oui s .r a ff e tt o @ ub s .com
+1 -617-439
8115
Em il ee
D eut chm an
A na l ys t e m il ee .de ut chm a n@ ubs .com
+1 -617-439
8502
Ja rrod C a stl e , C F A A na l ys t j a rr od.ca s t l e @ ubs .com
+ 44-20-756
88883
S our ce :
C omp a n y
R e por t s , U B S
www .u b s.co m / i n vest m en t r esea r ch
Th i s
rep o rt
h as
b een
p rep ared
b y
UB S
Se c u ri ti es
LLC .
ANAL YS T
C E R T I F IC AT I O N
AND
R E Q UI R E D
DIS C L O S UR E S
B E G I N
O N PA G E
16 .
UB S
do es
an d s eeks
to
do
bu s i n es s
w i th
c omp an i es
c o v ered
i n i ts
res earc h r ep o rts .
As
a
re s u l t , i n v es t o rs
s hou l d b e aw are
th at
th e
fi rm may
h ave
a
c on fl i c t
o f
i n teres t
th at
c ou l d affec t
th e
ob j ec ti v i ty
o f
t h i s
rep o rt.
I n ve s to rs
s hou l d c on s i d er
th i s rep o rt
as
on l y
a
s i ng l e
fac to r i n maki ng th ei r i n v es tmen t
d ec i s i on. A i r li nes
Am er i cas
Equit ies
L ayouts
of
a
s oc i a ll y
di s tanc e
ai r plane U B S
E vid e n ce
La b
r ece n t ly
p e r f orm e d
a n a lys i s
a round
t h e
S o ci a l
D i s t a n cin g
Flig h t o f
th e
F u tu re
to
h e l p e s t im a t e
t h e
imp a ct o f
s o cia ll y
d i s t a n c e d s ea t in g s ce n a r io s on
ai r li n e
l o a d
f ac t or s .
The
an al y s i s
l ook ed
a t
4
m ai n
ai r c raf t
t y p es ,
t w o na rro w bo di e s
( Boe i ng 737M A X
a nd A i rbu s
A 320)
a nd t w o w i d e bo di e s
( Boe i ng 787-9 a nd A i r bus
A 350) . T h e
a n a l y s i s
l ook e d a t
3 di ff e r e n t
s oc i a l
di s t a nc i ng s c e na r i os
a nd m odel e d t he pot en t i al
l o a d
f ac t or s
b as e d
on
s e at
p l ac em e n t
an d
t y p i c al
s e at i ng a rr an g e m en t s . Th e
s c enar i o
as s ump t ion s
ar e
as
f o ll o w s :
S c e na r i o
1:
S i ngl e
t r a v e l e r s
onl y ,
6
ft .
di s t a nc i ng
be t w ee n
a ll
t r a v e l e r s .
S c e na r i o
2:
A
m i x
of
s i ngl e
t r a v e l e r s
a nd
gr oups
of
2
a nd
3,
w it h di s t r i but i ons
b a s e d
on
a c t ua l
a i r li ne
P N R
book i ngs
da t a
of
60%
s i ngl e s , 25%
c oupl e s ,
15%
gr oups
o f
3+.
T he
s a m e
6
ft .
di s t a nc i ng
r e quir e m e nt s be t w ee n
s i ng l e s /gr oups
i s
a pp li e d.
S c e na r i o
3:
Re m ov e s
6
ft .
di s t a nc i ng
r e quir e m e nt s
a l t oge t he r
a nd
i n s t ea d a ppl i e s
t he
rul e
t ha t
pa ss e n ge r s
c a n
be
pl a c e d
i n
e v e r y
r ow ,
but
w i t hin a ny
gi v e n
r ow ,
a ny
pe r s on/group
ha s
a n
e m pt y
s ea t ,
w a ll
or
a n
i s l e
t o
t he r i ght
a nd
l e ft
of
t he m.
T h i s
s c e n a r i o
a ppl i e s
t he
s a m e
di s t r i but i on
of pa ss e nge r s
b y
group
s i z e
a s
i s
use d
i n
S c e na r i o
2.
F i gur e
1
be l o w
s umm a r i z e s
t he
r e s u l t s
of
t he
U BS
E v i d e nc e
L a b
a na l y s i s .
I f
a
6f t di s t a nc e
w e r e
r e quir e d
be t w ee n
a ll
pa ss e nge r s
( a ss um i ng
no
one
t r a v e li ng t oge t he r )
w e
c a n
s ee
how
ba d
t he
m a x i mum
l oa d
f a c t or s
w ould
be
( 10- 15% ) . A lt e rn a t ively
we
c an
s ee
i f
boo ki ng
ar r an g em en t s
ar e
l ay ered
i n t o
t h e
6 ft r eq u i r em en t
t h e
l o ad
f ac t or s
i mpro v e
bu t
r em ai n
at
r eal i s t i c all y
un s u s t ai n ab l e
l ev el s ( 15- 20% ) .
W e
obvi ou s l y
f i nd
e i t he r
of
t h e s e
a s
not
pr a c t i c a l
f rom
a n
e c onom i c s ense
a nd
w e " r e
una w a r e
of
a ny
a irlin e s
t e s t ing
t h e s e
or
a n yo n e
s p e cif ic a lly
a s k i ng f or
t he
6f t
di s t a nc e
t o
be
r e quir e d
on
a i rpl a ne s .
F i g u r e
2 :
S umma r y
o f
Ma x i mum
P o t e n t i a l
L o a d
F a ct o r s
M axi mum
Po t en t i al L o ad
F ac t o r
M ax
Seat s
B as e
C as e
Sc en ar i o
1
Sc en ar i o
2
Sc en ar i o
3
Boe i ng
737
200
100%
12.0 %
18.5 %
72.0 %
A i r bus
A320
171
100%
10.5 %
16.4 %
66.1 %
Boe i ng
787
259
100%
15.8 %
21.2 %
65.6 %
A i r bus
A350
320
100%
14.7 %
20.6 %
66.6 %
S our ce : U B S
Ev i d en ce
L a b
U s i ng
a
200
s ea t
737M A X
a nd
s i mpl y
r e m ov i ng
t he
m i ddl e
s ea t
w ould
r e s ul t
i n
a m a x
pot e nt i a l
l oa d
f a c t or
of
~66% ;
how e v e r,
a s
s ho w n
i n
t he
a na l y s i s ,
t he
l oa d fa c to r
fo r
t hi s
pl a ne
c ould
i n c r ea s e
t o
~72 %
w he n
t a k i ng
i nt o
a cc o unt
book i ng t r e nds
of
grou ps .
Whi l e
t hi s
i s
gene r a ll y
t h e
a ppr oa c h
m a ny
a i r li ne s
a r e
t a k i ng
i n t h e
n ear -term,
th e
l o a d
fa c to rs
a c ro ss
a i rcra ft
w ou l d
s ti ll
s i mp l y
b e
to o
l o w
fo r mo s t
a i r l in e s .
F i g u r e
3 :
B o ei n g
737
B as e
Sc en ar i o
F i g u r e
4 :
B o ei n g
737
Sc en ar i o
1
S our ce :
U B S
Ev i d en ce
L ab
S our ce :
U B S
Ev i d en ce
L ab
F i g u r e
5 :
B o ei n g
737
Sc en ar i o
2
F i g u r e
6 :
B o ei n g
737
Sc en ar i o
3
S our ce :
U B S
Ev i d en ce
L ab
S our ce :
U B S
Ev i d en ce
L ab
F i g u r e
7 :
A i r b us
A 320
B as e
Sc en ar i o
F i g u r e
8 :
A i r b us
A 320
Sc en a r i o
1
S our ce :
U B S
Ev i d en ce
L ab
S our ce :
U B S
Ev i d en ce
L ab
F i g u r e
9 :
A i r b us
A 320
Sc en a r i o
2
F i g u r e
10 :
A i r b us
A 320
Sc en ar i o
3
S our ce :
U B S
Ev i d en ce ...
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