下面是小编为大家整理的管理COVID-19对全球经济影,响新兴优先重点和原则,供大家参考。
Emerging
Priorities
and
Principles
for Managing
the
Global
Economic
Impact
of COVID-19
Chief
Economists
Outlook
This
brie fi ng
is
the
outcome
of
consultations
with leading
chief
economists
from
both the
public
and private
sectors
and
leaders
from
the
Stewardship
Board of
the
W orld
Economic
Forum’ s
Platfor m for
Shaping the
Futur e
of
the
New
Economy
and
Society.
It
aims
to
summarize
the
emerging
contours
of
the current
economic
environment,
assess
perceived
policy effectiveness
and
identify
priorities
for
further
action
by
policy-makers
and
business
leaders
in
r esponse
to the
global
economic
crisis
trigger ed
by
the
COVID-19 pandemic.
1
An
unpr ecedented economic
shock
–
and r esponse
Gover nments
and
central
banks
in
the economies
most
af fected
by
the
COVID-19 pandemic
have
rapidly
mobilized
to
keep their
economies
on
“life
support” while societies
fight
the
most
dramatic
health crisis
of
our
time.
Unprecedented
levels
of
government
transfers,
cr edit
lines
and loan
guarantees
have
been
lined
up
and liquidity
has
been
injected
into
the
economy extr emely
rapidly
to
avoid
the
collapse
of
the financial
system.
There
is
still
immense
uncertainty
about
the futur e
trajectory
of
the
virus,
and
analysts and
policy-makers
cannot
predict
the
full extent
of
both the
health
and
economic impact
of
the
pandemic. 1
Initial
indicators
point
towards
a
global r ecession
that
might
be
the
deepest
in the
last
150
years,
although
a
fairly
rapid r ecovery
may
still
be
a
possibility
at
this stage. 2
In
China,
which
faced
the
first wave
of
the
health
crisis
and
subsequent economic
shock,
the
National
Bur eau
of
Statistics
r eported
on
16
Mar ch
that
Chinese manufacturing
decr eased
by
15.7%
in
the first
two
months
of
2020,
while
private- sector
output fell
by
20.2%
and
fixed-asset investments
by
24.5%
year -on-year . 3
In
the
US
and
Eur ope,
the
Pur chasing Managers’
Index,
one
of
the
leading indicators
for
GD P , has
plunged
mor e
than during
the
financial
crisis
of
2008-2009. The
US
is
experiencing
a
labour
market shock
of
never -befor e-seen
pr oportions, with
mor e
than
3
million
workers
filing
for unemployment
benefits
during
the
first
week
of
lockdowns
and
6.6 million
mor e
during
the second
week.
While
economic
activity
in
China
is
slowly r esuming,
hopes
for
a
steep
r ecovery
have been
dampened
as
new
outbr eaks
cannot be
ruled
out
and
drops
in
demand
globally are
af fecting
key
Chinese
export
markets. There
is
also
some
indication
that
citizens might
be
hesitant
to
go
back
to
normal economic
and
social
life,
at
least
temporarily, even
wher e
state-imposed
confinement measur es
have
been
lifted,
pr oviding
a potential
pr ecursor
of
the
low
likelihood
of
a rapid
r eturn
to
past
consumer
behaviours
in other
parts
of
the
world. 4
At
the
time
of
writing,
financial
markets may
have
found
a
bottom given
decisive interventions
by
monetary
authorities
to pr ovide
liquidity,
yet
new
information
on
the spr ead
and
socioeconomic
fallout
fr om
the virus
might
trigger
mor e
volatility. 5
1
Thompson,
2020
2
Reinhar d
and
Rogof f,
2020
3
Huang
et
al.,
2020
4
as
indicated
by
very
low
box
of fice
figures,
Financial
T imes,
2020
5
El
Erian,
2020
2
Assessment
of
current policy
ef fectiveness: which
policies
are
most pr omising?
A
number
of
possible
economic
scenarios have
been
put forwar d
by
public
and
private organizations,
including
those
r epresented in
the
World
Economic
Forum ’ s
Community of
Chief
Economists.
The
length
of
the economic
downtur n
will
depend
not
only
on
the
dif fer ent
trajectories
for
the
virus
and the
public
health
r esponse,
but also
on
the ef fectiveness
(speed,
pr ecision
and
quality)
of economic
policy
measur es
to:
— Pr event
corporate
insolvencies
— Short-circuit
negative
demand
spirals
— Stabilize
financial
markets
— Expand
healthcar e
capacity
These
measur es
focus
on
stabilizing
the economy
and
building
capacity
for
a
rapid r ebound
while
it
is
in
for ced
hiber nation, rather
than
being
traditional
stimulus
policies. The
latter
will
become
mor e
relevant
as
the economy
heads
towards
higher
activity.
If
ef fective,
policies
that
attempt
to
influence these
factors
can
help
make
it
mor e
likely that
the
economy
will
fully
r ecover
once “social
distancing”
r estrictions
are
lifted,
i.e. mor e
likely
that
contraction
and
r ecovery will
take
a
V -shape,
or
possibly
a
U-shape
if the
bottom of
the
contraction
is
drawn
out. If
policies
are
inef fective
at
influencing
these
measur es,
it
will
be
mor e
likely
that
the
path of
economic
output in
the
near
futur e
will look
like
an
L.
In
addition,
the
distributional
impact
of
the crisis
and
the
longer -term quality
of
the r ecovery
will
depend
on
ef forts
to
pr otect the
most
vulnerable
and
measur es
to
steer economies
on
to
a
gr eener
and
fair er
track. The
crisis
has
revealed
an
inadequate
past focus
on
the
quality
of
gr owth. The
pr esent moment
of fers
an
opportunity
to
combine
urgent
support
with
conscious
ef forts
to
build back
better
economic
systems.
Based
on
a
survey
and
virtual
dialogue between
members
of
the
Forum ’ s Community
of
Chief
Economists
as
well as
other
leaders,
we
aim
to
pr ovide
an initial
assessment
of
the
policies
being implemented,
the
constraints
to
their ef fectiveness,
and
their
likely
impact
on shaping
our
economic
futur e.
These
views are
summarized
below . Figure
1
shows
ex ante
perceived
ef fectiveness
of
available policy
tools
for
the
current
situation.
Ther e
ar e
r elatively
positive views
of
the
overall
speed
and magnitude
of
policy
actions
There
is
some
cautious
optimism
that monetary
and
fiscal
measur es
taken
to
date by
governments
of
advanced
economies could,
in
principle,
be
sufficient
to
short- cir cuit
negative
demand
spirals
and ther efor e
the
worst knock-on ef fects
beyond the
initial
shutdown-r elated
supply
and demand
shocks
(see
Figure
2).
The
average per ception
is
also
that
policy
looks
to
be
on track
to
r estor e
a
certain
degr ee
of
calm
in financial
markets.
Borrowing
costs
are
not
consider ed
a strong
concer n
for
advanced
economies, as
much
of
their
debt can
be
serviced
in their
own
currency
(see
Figure
3).
Further , for
the
standing
dollar
liquidity
swap
lines that
wer e
established
in
2007
between
the US
Federal
Reserve,
the
Eur opean
Central Bank,
the
Bank
of
England,
the
Bank
of Japan,
the
Bank
of
Canada
and
the
Swiss National
Bank,
the
terms
of
the
swaps
wer e lengthened
and
inter est
margins
r educed
in r esponse
to
the
crisis. 6
However , this
does
not
apply
to
the incr easing
number
of
low- and
middle- income
countries
af fected
by
the
virus
and experiencing
sudden-stops
and
financial
flow r eversals.
While
targeted
measur es for health,
households
and
firms
ar e consider ed
to
be
most
ef fective
in principle
–
ther e
is
concer n
about their
execution
T argeted
measur es
to
keep
a fl oat
households and
fi rms
as
well
as
those
that
can
target impr ovements
in
the
healthcar e
r esponse
are
seen
as
some
of
the
most
ef fective
in
the
current situation
(see
Figure
1);
indeed,
they
form
part
of most
countries’
policy
r esponses.
At
the
same
time,
ther e
are
doubts as
to whether
newly
allocated
healthcar e
spending is
suf fi cient.
Additionally,
ther e
is
concer n that
the
implementation
of
fi scal
measur es
proposed
for
fi rms
and
households
might
not be
straightforwar d
(see
Figure
3).
T ime
is
of
the essence
as
cash
buf fers
are
alr eady
running low
for
many
households
and
smaller
fi rms, yet
bur eaucratic
pr ocesses
could
slow
ef forts and
government
support
risks
arriving
too late.
In
particular , r esponses
suggest
that
digital distribution
channels
curr ently
in
place
might
not be
suf fi cient
to
r each
r ecipients
with
the
speed r equir ed.
Ther e
is
concer n
about
the short-term
impact
on
the
most
vulnerable
as well
as the
medium- to
longer -term
impact
on
inequality and
sustainability
The
survey
and
consultations
further surfaced
concer ns
that
current
policy measur es
do not
adequately
addr ess
the asymmetric
ef fects
of
the
crisis
on
the
most vulnerable
households,
which
need
the
most immediate
support
(see
Figure
2).
The
crisis has
brought
to
light
a
legacy
of
er oded
social safety
nets,
low
wages
and
pr ecarious
work.
Survey
r esponses
r eveal
the
need
to
shift policy
priorities
to
a
br oader
set
of
metrics beyond
just
GDP
gr owth to
pr event
such negative
societal
outcomes
during
futur e shocks.
Additionally,
r esponses
indicate
that
policy
measur es
now
on
the
table
could do a
better
job
at
balancing
shorter -term considerations
against
the
longer -term need to
pivot
economies
towards
gr eener
and fair er
economic
outcomes
(see
Figure
2).
6
T ooze,
2020
Figur e
1:
Ef fectiveness
of
policy
instruments
Sour ce:
World
Economic
Forum,
2020
(1
= highly
inef fective,
5
= highly
effective)
T argeted:
healthcar e
T argeted:
af fected
firms
T argeted:
households
T argeted:
monetary
T argeted:
individual
bailouts
General:
monetary
General:
fiscal
0,0
1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0
Figu...
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