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H S B C
F X
St r a t e g y
C u rr e n c i es
G lob al
Mar c h
2020 www . r e s ea rc h . h s b c. c om
C u rr e nc y
O ut lo o k
E x t r a o r d in a r y
t im e s
T h e s e
a r e
e x tr a or d i n a r y
ti m e s.
T he
CO V I D - 19
pa nd em i c
a nd a c o ll a p s e
i n
o il
p r i c e s
h a v e
s ee n T r e as u r y
y ie l d s
si n k
t o
r e c or d
l o w s, e q u i t y
m a r k et s
r eac h
b ea r
m a r k et t err i t o r y ,
a nd g old t rad e
a t
s e v en - y e a r h i g h s .
P ol i c y ma k er s
a c r o ss
b o th
D M a n d
E M
a r e
s c r a m b li n g
t o
m i t i g a t e
t h e a d v e r s e
e c onom ic
i m p a c t s.
W e
o u t li n e
i n
v a r i o u s
p i e c e s
w h a t
t h i s m e a ns
f or
F X .
D i sc lo s ur e s
&
D i sc l a i m e r :
T h i s
r e p o r t
m u s t
b e
r ea d
w it h
t h e
d i s c l o s u r e s
a n d
t h e
a n a ly s t
c e r t i fic a t i o n s
i n t h e
D i s c l o s u r e
a pp e n d ix ,
a n d
w it h
t h e
D i s c l a i m e r ,
w h i c h
f o r m s
p a r t
o f
it .
Executive
S ummary
Th ese
are
extraordinary
ti mes
fo r
fin ancia l markets . T he
COVID- 19
pandemi c and
a c ollap s e
in
oil
pri c e s ha v e
s een
T rea s ury yield s s in k t o
r e c ord
low s, equi ty m arke ts rea c h
bear marke t terr i tory, and
gold
tra de
a t s e v en-year high s. Poli cym a k ers a c ro ss bo th DM
and
EM region s are
sc rambling
to m i ti ga te t he
ad v erse
e c onomi c impa cts. In G1 0 , c en tra l
ban ks are fo llowing
t he
F ed
a ft er i ts 50bp
emergen cy ra te c u t. B u t wha t doe s t hi s all
m ean
f or curren c ie s ?
FX is
going structura l. A s po tl igh t now
s hine s on
th e
poli cy fl e x ibili ty (or la ck t hereo f ) o f c en tra l ban ks and
go v ernmen ts. In our view
t he
USD
s hould
remain
re s ilien t, a s t he
F ed
s i ts on
a bigger cu s hion
o f m one t ary poli cy c ompared
to i ts G10 peers , and
t he
USD
remain s th e
m o st liquid
c urren cy in
th e s e
t ime s o f turm oil . It’s also the structural factors that help the FX m arke t di sc ern
be t ween
t he
r i sk- on
and
r i sk- o ff c urren c ie s a s t he
R O R O paradigm con t inue s t o
domina t e . T he
U S D
ha s f ared
well
v ersu s EM s in c e
C OVI D-19
headline s f irs t st ar t ed
t o
t igh t en
t heir grip
on
m arke ts, bu t ha s depre c ia t ed
again st the ‘safe havens’ in typical Risk On – Ri sk Off f a s hion . I n
our view
t hi s t heme
will
c on t inue
s o
long a s r i sk- o ff s en t imen t and
heigh t ened
v ola t ili ty persi st. W e
are
no t s urpri s ed
t ha t t he
JPY ha s c on f ounded
t he
na ys a y ers who
t hough t i t had
lo st i ts s a f e
ha v en
st a t u s, bu t we
c au t ion
t ho s e
who ma y t urn
t o
t he
E UR
in
t heir f ligh t t o
s a f e ty. T he
idea
t ha t t he
E UR
i s ‘now a safe haven’ i s an illu s ion , in
our view . De s pi t e
i ts r e c en t r all y w e
b e li eve
E UR-USD
s hould f a ll b ack
to 1 . 10 . O ne
r ea s on
f or our scep t i c i sm on
t he
E UR
i s t he
apparen t la ck o f abili ty t o
c oordina t e
f i sc al
and mone t ary poli cy in
t ime s o f need . Con t ra st ingl y, t he
U K i s one
o f t he
f ew
e c onomie s t ha t ha s t a k en
a c oordina t ed
approa c h
t o
t he
e c onomi c s ho ck, a s i t announ c ed
f i sc al
loo s ening
on
t he
s ame
da y i t s urpri s ed
t he
m arke t wi t h
a
50bp
r a t e
c u t. Normall y s u c h
poli cy a ct ion s would
c au s e
a
c urren cy t o
f all bu t in th ese
exce ption a l c i rc u msta n ces
w e
b e li eve
th e
FX markets
will re w ar d p r o active
poli cy mak ing. T ha t m a y al s o
e x plain
wh y when
R BA poli cym a k ers spo k e
abou t QE – hin t ing
a t a
f orm o f y ield
c urve
c on t rol
– r a t her t han
a s a
blun t in st rumen t, i t wa s no t par t i c ularl y nega t i v e
f or t he
A UD . T here
al s o
appears t o
be
a
s equen c ing
e ff e ct whi c h
ha s pla y ed
ou t a c ro ss FX. As ian
c urren c ie s s old
o ff when
th e
v iru s f irs t emerged
in
China , bu t ha v e
been
m ore
r e s ilien t as
t he
s i t ua t ion be c ome s a
global
one . W e
belie v e
As ian
FX i s m o v ing
in t o
a
pha s e
o f weighing
up
th e
poli cy re s pon s e
in
ea c h
e c onomy to de t ermine
FX performan c e . China
i s e x pe ct ed
t o
ramp
up
f i sc al s pending
and
ha s alread y begun
m one tary ea s ing
whi c h
s hould
help
th e
RM B m ain ta in
sta bili ty. T he
i ss ue
o f t he
v iru s, RORO, and
v arying
poli cy re s pon s e s wa s alread y an
e xtrem el y v ola ti le c on c o cti on ; we
t hen
had
t o
add
a
c ollap s e
o f oil
pri c e s in t o
t he
m i x. If pri c e s s e tt le
a t low
le v el s, oil
e x porting
e c onomie s will
f a c e
a
de ter iora ti ng
str u ctu ral
ou tl oo k whi c h
s hould
s ee
t heir curren c ie s c ome
under selling
pre ss ure . Un s urpri s ingl y, th e
RU B i s t he
CEEMEA underpe rform er a ft er t he
pri c e
war bro k e
ou t; howe v er we
would
ha v e
e x pe cte d
a
m ilder
adjustment given the RUB’s sound macro and financial fundamentals. We believe the recent s pi k e
in
USD-RU B m a y be
c lo s e
t o
i ts pea k. In s ho rt
w e
ma int a in o ur
bull is h vie w on th e
USD
but in a
risk
off environment the
J PY rema in s
the
ou tperformer.
W e
belie v e
t ha t t he
re c en t rall y in
t he
EUR
i s o v erdone
m u c h
li k e th e
s ello ff in
t he
RUB. As ia , whi c h
on
a
s equen c ing
ba s i s wa s hi t f irs t, i s now
holding
up
be tt er and
we
awai t th e
f ull
poli cy re s pon s e
f rom t he
Chine s e
au th ori ti e s. M eanwhile , a s global
bea ts lo c al
we
remain
bulli s h
on
GBP bu t ha v e
t empered
t ha t v iew .
Fed’s turning, th e
USD
is
not (pg 3)
E UR
– The s qu ee z y
boun ce
before
the
trounce
(pg 8)
Asia
– W e ighing the
polic y
response
(pg 15)
J PY – This leopard hasn’t changed its spots (pg 20)
GBP – Think global not loca l (pg 22)
Gold – Bu ll market c ontinue s
(pg 24)
RUB
– A
sense
of dé j à
- vu
(pg 26)
AUD
– QE not w hat it seems
(pg 28)
Key
events
Date Event
18 March Fed rate announcement 19 March
25 March 26 March 7 April BoJ rate announcement Norges Bank rate announcement SNB rate announcement RBNZ rate announcement BoE rate announcement RBA rate announcement
Source: HSBC
Central
Bank
poli cy
rate
fo recasts
(%)
Last Q1 2020(f) Q4 2020(f) USD 1.00-1.25 0.50-0.75 0.00-0.25 EUR 0.00/-0.50 0.00/-0.60 0.00/-0.60 JPY -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 GBP 0.25 0.10 0.10 Source: HSBC forecasts for Fed funds, Refi rate/Deposit rate, Overnight Call rate and Base rate
Consens u s
fo recasts
for
key
currencies
vs
USD
3 months 12 months EUR 1.118 1.136 JPY 108.1 106.5 GBP 1.317 1.340 CAD 1.314 1.308 AUD 0.680 0.684 NZD 0.637 0.644 Source: Consensus Economics Foreign Exchange Forecasts February 2020
Fed’s
turning,
the
USD
is
not
Aft er an
emergen cy 50bp
c u t on
3
M arch , m an y are
e x pe cti ng
f u rt her ea s ing
sti ll
t o
c ome
f rom the
F ed . O rdinaril y, in
a
cyc li c al
world , ra t e
c u ts would
be
a ss o c ia te d
wi th c urren cy wea k ne ss. T he
downgrading
o f the USD’s stat u s a s t he
c arry king
o f G 10
FX m u st s urel y c ome
wi th s ome c on s equen c e s. W e
di s agree . T he
rela ti on s hip
be tw een
in ter e st ra tes and
FX f or man y G10 c urren cy pairs ha s c learl y bro k en
down , s ome t hing
we
ha v e
loo k ed
a t a
number o f t ime s in
th e la st y ear or so . T here f ore
we
belie v e
t ha t t he
USD
s hould
remain
re s ilien t, ju st a s i t did
in
2019 . T he
F ed
c u t ra t e s th ree
t ime s la st y ea r. Des pit e
th ose
rate
cuts , the
USD
bro a dl y
ral li e d in 2019 . De s pi te near- t erm so ft ne ss, in
our view , a
number o f c ondi t ion s remain
in
pla c e
th a t s hould
s hel ter t he
USD
from longer-term wea k ne ss, in c luding : 1) Eve n if the
market thinks
cyc li ca ll y , the
F e d is
not eas ing a lo ne . Oth er G10 cen tr al ban ks whi c h
la ck room to cu t r a tes m a y be
f orced
t o
pursue
m ore
un c on v en ti onal
poli c ie s, whi c h
would
be
nega tiv e
f or t heir curren c ie s. 2) The
US
ec ono my
i s
in a
b etter
startin g pl ace . Loo k ing
be y ond
t he
c urren t s uppl y-s ide s ho ck, lower US t rea s ury yield s s hould
a ctu all y boo st t he
US
cyc li c al
ou t loo k, m a k ing
s u sta ined USD
wea k ne ss tricky. 3) FX markets
h ave
b ec o me
do m in ate d b y
RORO
fo rces
and
t he
impa ct o f m u c h
lower oil pri c e s in
ligh t o f re c en t de v elopmen ts. T he
USD
m ain ta in s i ts st a tus a s a
f irm sa f e
ha v en regardle ss o f ra tes. T he
bigge st r i sk t o
our strong
USD
v iew
would
be
a
r e tu rn
o f t he
Ri sk On world . Ca ta l ysts f or thi s would
be
a
m u c h
larger f i sc al
e x pan s ion
in
China
or t he
Euro z one
f or e x ample . Bu t f or now , s u c h
poli cy a cti on s do
no t appear on
th e
r ada r, and
t he
e c onomi c ou tl oo k m a y need
t o
ge t worse
be fo re
i t s purs poli cy m a k ers in to m ore
r adi c al
a ct ion . 1 . USD
res ili ent in face
of low er
US
rates
2 . No
o bv io us
negative
USD
impact from
Fe d rate
cuts
l ast year
100
98
96
94
92
90
88
DXY
Index
,
LHS
USD
1y1m
fwd
rate,
RHS
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
DXY performance following Fed rate cuts in 2019 1.2%
0.8%
0.4%
0.0%
-0.4%
-0.8% Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
-1.2%
Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Source: Bloomberg, HSBC 1w after 1m after
USD
– the
b reak down of FX a nd rates
Cha rt 1
s how s t he
brea k down
o f US
ra tes and
t he
broad
DX Y inde x. In 2018 , US
ra tes – a s m ea s ured
b y t he
1m ra te 1 y f orward
–...
