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Contents
Acknowledgments
................................................................................................................................. vi
Abbr eviations
...................................................................................................................................... viii
Country Codes
....................................................................................................................................... x
Regional
Classification
Used
in
this
Report
............................................................................................ xi
Executive
Summary
.............................................................................................................................. xii P AR T
I:
The
Economic
Outlook and
Long-ter m
Challenges
............................. 1
1 COVID-19
Pandemic
and
the
Economic
Outlook
........................................................ 3
Global
Context
................................................................................................................................ 3
Eur ope
and Central Asia:
Recent
Developments and Outlook
......................................................... 8
Long-Ter m
Challenges
and Policies
................................................................................................. 30
Annex 1.1. Data
and For ecast
Conventions
..................................................................................... 35
References
...................................................................................................................................... 36
2 COVID-19
and
Human
Capital
................................................................................... 41
Investment in
Human
Capital: A
Centerpiece of
Post-Pandemic
Recovery
...................................... 41
The
State
of
Human
Capital in
Eur ope
and Central Asia
on
the
Eve
of
the
Pandemic
...................... 42
Impact of
the
COVID-19
Pandemic
on
Health and E d u c a t i o n
O u t c o m e s
i n
E ur o p e
a n d
Central Asia
.................................................................................................................................... 65
Improving
Investments
in
Human
Capital
....................................................................................... 74
Conclusion
..................................................................................................................................... 90
Annex 2.1. Estimation of
Quality-Adjusted
Y ears
of
Higher
Education
............................................ 95
Annex 2.2. Estimates
of
the
Ef fect
of
Adult
Health Risk
Factors
on
Pr oductivity
............................ 102
References
................................................................................................................................... 105
P AR T
II:
Selected
Country
Pages
.................................................................. 117
Albania ......................................................................................................................................... 119
Ar menia
....................................................................................................................................... 121
Azerbaijan
.................................................................................................................................... 123
Belarus
......................................................................................................................................... 125
Bosnia
and Herzegovina
............................................................................................................... 127
Bulgaria
........................................................................................................................................ 129
Cr oatia
......................................................................................................................................... 131
Geor gia
........................................................................................................................................ 133
Kazakhstan
................................................................................................................................... 135
Kosovo
......................................................................................................................................... 137
Kyr gyz
Republic
............................................................................................................................ 139
Moldova
....................................................................................................................................... 141
Montenegr o
................................................................................................................................. 143
North
Macedonia
......................................................................................................................... 145
Poland
.......................................................................................................................................... 147
Romania
....................................................................................................................................... 149
Russian
Federation
....................................................................................................................... 151
Serbia
........................................................................................................................................... 153
T ajikistan
...................................................................................................................................... 155
T urkey
.......................................................................................................................................... 157
Ukraine
......................................................................................................................................... 159
Uzbekistan
.................................................................................................................................... 161
iii
iv
●
World
Bank
ECA
Economic
Update
Fall
2020
Boxes
1.1 Impact of
COVID-19
on
poverty
in
Eur ope
and Central Asia
.................................................................... 10
1.2 The
sooner , the
better:
COVID-19
and the
importance
of
acting
quickly to
save
lives
and livelihoods
......................................................................................................................................... 12
1.3 Fiscal
policy
and debt
in
the
time
of
COVID-19
....................................................................................... 18
2.1 Dif fer ences
in
the
Human
Capital Index acr oss
socioeconomic quintiles
.................................................. 44
2.2 What would
happen
if
the
Human
Capital Index of
T ajikistan,
T urkey , and the
Russian
Federation r ose
to the
level of
Finland?
................................................................................................................................. 46
2.3 The
gender
gap
in
science,
technology , engineering,
and mathematics
.................................................. 55
2.4 Pandemic
pr epar edness:
How well
were
countries in
Eur ope
and Central Asia
pr epar ed
for
infectious disease
outbr eaks
befor e
COVID-19?
................................................................................................................... 59
2.5 Policy
priorities
to
mitigate
the
ef fects
of
COVID-19
on
lear ning
............................................................. 75
2.6 Pr eparing
health systems
for
futur e
pandemics
........................................................................................ 83
2.7 Integrating
noncommunicable disease
pr evention
and tr eatment
at
the
primary car e
level in
T urkey
. 88
Figur es
1.1 Global
economic activity and COVID-19
.................................................................................................... 4
1.2 Global
trade
and financial
indicators
.......................................................................................................... 6
1.3 Global
policy
inter est
rates
and fiscal
support
measur es
............................................................................ 7
1.4 Economic for ecasts
and COVID-19
in
ECA
................................................................................................. 9
B1.1.1
Actual and pr ojected
per centage and number
of
people
in
Eur ope
and Central Asia
living
on
less
than $3.20
a
day
and less
than $5.50
a
day , 2015–20
....................................................................................... 10
B1.1.2
Pr ojected
incr ease
in
the
number
of
people
living
on
less
than $3.20
a
day
and less
than $5.50
a
day
in
Eur ope
and Central Asia,
by
country gr oup,
2020
................................................................................ 11
B1.2.1
Evolution of
the
COVID-19
pandemic
in
the
ECA
r egion,
by
phase
......................................................... 12
B1.2.2
Change
in
electricity
consumption
and speed of
implementation
of
national lockdown
.......................... 14
B1.2.3
Change
in
mobility
(driving)
and speed of
implementation
of
national lockdown
.................................... 15
1.5 Financial
market indicators and stimulus
measur es
in
ECA
....................................................................... 16
B1.3.1
Debt
and fiscal
sustainability
.................................................................................................................... 19
1.6 Factors
af fecting
the
long-ter ...
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